In 20 years, if he's right he'll be a genius. And if he's wrong no one will remember.
How about predicting which technologies will mature in the next five years, so people can build companies around them now and accelerate progress.
He was wrong about voice technology for 2009. Will that be ready by 2019? Will consumer robots be here in five years, en masse? Will solar energy be ready in 5 years? Will electric batteries give us the additional range needed so cars can replace the gas engine? Wearables? Genetics?
How about predicting which technologies will mature in the next five years, so people can build companies around them now and accelerate progress.
He was wrong about voice technology for 2009. Will that be ready by 2019? Will consumer robots be here in five years, en masse? Will solar energy be ready in 5 years? Will electric batteries give us the additional range needed so cars can replace the gas engine? Wearables? Genetics?