Just as an aside I also think I am way more productive now but a really convincing datapoint would be someone who does project work and now has 5x the hourly rate they had last year. If there are not plenty of people like this, it cannot be 10x
That's not a very convincing argument. Even if you can do 10x the work, that doesn't necessarily mean you can easily find customers ready to pay 5x the hourly rate.
Yeah the last one. The others would require 5x deal flow which LLMs might not help deliver at all. But the last one should exist for people if 10x is true. Not every client can have already fully price in LLM improvements, people have contracts negotiated pre LLM.
I have not heard of this though so I have to remain sceptical