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It's actually more like 100x their current revenue; they stated last week[0] that they have spending commitments for $1.4T of compute.

Or, well, they stated that the TCO of the compute they have commitments for is $1.4T, which is a somewhat strange phrasing. I assume it's due to it being a mix of self-owned vs. rental compute, and what they mean is the TCO to OpenAI rather than the TCO to the owner of the compute.

[0] https://x.com/sama/status/1983584366547829073



That’s absolutely insane.

I get that folks are now just engaged in “keeping up with the Jones’” FOMO behavior but none of this is making any sense.


The real massive revenues that the big tech companies are having aren't going to disappear just because OpenAI goes away.


The real revenues of small and mid-sizes tech companies might, though. Which might be funny (in a Road Runner & Wile E. Coyote way) but only after considerable time and distance. Saying that, I think of those guys from The Big Short being reprimanded for celebrating their prediction of a market crash.

The financial impact if the whole AI space loses even 50% of its current "valuation" will be huge. The financial impact of the whole AI space continuing at its current velocity is... More of whatever is going on now?


I went to 10× revenue because I figured the ~$1 trillion was over something like a decade, rather than over a year.




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