I stick with the dog walker analogy. A man walks down the street at a steady pace, and the dog on the leash runs back and forth and side ways and sits and jumps.
The man is the economy, the dog is the market. Unless you have access to HFT systems & models, there is no point in trying to guess where the dog will go. You have to look at the man, which is the aggregate health of the economy. If I start to see the man walk backwards, I sell, and vis versa. But *mostly*, I just stick things in ETF's and don't worry about it unless I need the money in the near future.
The man is the economy, the dog is the market. Unless you have access to HFT systems & models, there is no point in trying to guess where the dog will go. You have to look at the man, which is the aggregate health of the economy. If I start to see the man walk backwards, I sell, and vis versa. But *mostly*, I just stick things in ETF's and don't worry about it unless I need the money in the near future.