FSD is incredible in that it works everywhere, most of the time. The problem is it works most of the time. I do not think the current FSD sensor suite (camera only) will ever be safely capable of true unsupervised FSD. I use FSD every day. I would seriously estimate FSD has put 95% of the miles on my car. I regularly encounter the following:
* treating red lights like stop signs
* completely ignoring flash reds
* stopping at flashing yellows
* ignoring school zones
* driving 10mph under the limit
* driving 20mph over the limit
* ignoring turn only lanes resulting in being dumped into oncoming traffic until it leisurely moves back into the correct lane
* waiting until the last minute to get into the correct lane to make a turn/take an exit
* ignoring signs indicating a lane ends and having to force its way into traffic
* ignoring signs a lane ends and changing into the lane only to have to change back immediately
* pulling out in front of cars, especially at night or other camera obscuring events
* ignoring cars merging onto the highway and blocking them until I take over and get out of the way
I treat it like cruise control. And based on the recent accident during which FSD decided to run itself off a perfectly straight, open, clear rode and into a tree, I keep my hand on the wheel.
Even in a geo-fenced environment, FSD is NOT going to work for unsupervised robo-taxi applications. Musk needs to get out of the way and let them stick LIDARs on these cars.
All that being said, it has also handled really complex driving in/around DC/Baltimore including some tricky merges/transitions that are hard to track as a human driver. It's knowledge of all of the surrounding vehicles allows it to make these maneuvers with far more confidence that I would. It also frees me up to track the bigger picture of traffic while not having to manage my speed/lane position. It's like driving with a friend who's not necessarily the best driver, but is basically competent. Let's just hope it doesn't decide to drive me in to a tree for no particular reason.
I don't want to be seen as defending Tesla's overpromising and underdelivering, but everything you mentioned I see on a daily basis from all makes and models of motor vehicles on the roadway. Of course, FSD should be better than humans, but it's somewhat humorous to me that right now it's got the same problems as people.
It’s not humorous it’s expected - when you train your system on data from millions of average drivers, why would you be surprised that it behaves like an average driver?
And the average human driver is terrible at driving
I agree - I think the average driver is average. Not great, not bad! That's why they're average, right? If the average driver were terrible, then terrible would be average, and we'd be back to where we started.
The fact that we're all not constantly getting smashed into means that on the whole drivers are competent.
In terms of absolute safety the average driver is quite terrible. Following too closely, swerving in and out of lanes, not stopping at stop signs, driving 10 over. I see this daily.
On a typical Texas highway not only is everyone driving 10 over, and the typical following distance is about ~1 car length. At 80 miles an hour. Lord have mercy if anything happens on the road.
* treating red lights like stop signs
* completely ignoring flash reds
* stopping at flashing yellows
* ignoring school zones
* driving 10mph under the limit
* driving 20mph over the limit
* ignoring turn only lanes resulting in being dumped into oncoming traffic until it leisurely moves back into the correct lane
* waiting until the last minute to get into the correct lane to make a turn/take an exit
* ignoring signs indicating a lane ends and having to force its way into traffic
* ignoring signs a lane ends and changing into the lane only to have to change back immediately
* pulling out in front of cars, especially at night or other camera obscuring events
* ignoring cars merging onto the highway and blocking them until I take over and get out of the way
I treat it like cruise control. And based on the recent accident during which FSD decided to run itself off a perfectly straight, open, clear rode and into a tree, I keep my hand on the wheel.
Even in a geo-fenced environment, FSD is NOT going to work for unsupervised robo-taxi applications. Musk needs to get out of the way and let them stick LIDARs on these cars.
All that being said, it has also handled really complex driving in/around DC/Baltimore including some tricky merges/transitions that are hard to track as a human driver. It's knowledge of all of the surrounding vehicles allows it to make these maneuvers with far more confidence that I would. It also frees me up to track the bigger picture of traffic while not having to manage my speed/lane position. It's like driving with a friend who's not necessarily the best driver, but is basically competent. Let's just hope it doesn't decide to drive me in to a tree for no particular reason.