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The caveat being if you have even a coarse-grained sense of market timing, this works strongly against your own pnl. The optimal strategy is to long the bubble, short the correction, then long the recovery. It’s not possible to do perfectly but you can often sell for part of the way down and skip some of your losses before buying back in. This generally would increase vol but is personally advantageous if you can do it.

It is incredibly to “follow your lizard brain” and destroy your returns. Selloff? “Time to be greedy!” Whoops, caught that falling knife with your hand. Maybe it’s a V-shaped recovery a la corona. Maybe it’s a decade plus like the Nasdaq post-dot-com. Rally? “Time to be fearful!” Wait, it keeps going up? Do you get more fearful? Do you sit in cash for years amidst inflation and high returns?



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