Remember the quote that IBM thought there would be a total market for maybe 10 or 15 computer computers in the entire world? They were giant, and expensive, and very limited in application.
A popular myth, it seems to be made-up from a way-less-interesting statement about a single specific model of computer during a 1953 stockholder meeting:
> IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the [IBM 701] machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18.
And that might have been true for a period of time. Advancements made it so they could become smaller and more efficient, and opened up a new market.
LLMs today feel like the former, but are being marketed as the latter. Fully believe that advancements will make them better, but in their current state they're being touted for their possibilities, not their actual capabilities.
I'm for using AI now as the tool they are, but AI is a while off taking senior development jobs. So when I see them being hyped for doing that it just feels like a hype bubble.
