I see it more as “if an LLM can do that, why would I need an employer?”

This coin has two sides. If a CTO can live without you, you can live without an expensive buffer between you and your clients. He’s now just a guy like you, and adds little value compared to everyone else.

I know what you mean but I don't see it positive either. If each engineer is now a startup, it will be extra complicated to make money.

It's like saying since all of us know how to write, we all can sell books.

I think the replacement for developers won't be CTOs but program managers -- folks with business degrees (or none at all) but who understand the company's needs for the software and can translate them into prompts to build the product without any understanding of how to code. (Some places call these folks 'software anthropologists'.) They'll hone the product iteratively though development almost like a genetic algorithm would, by trial and error -- rejecting or revising the output verbally (and eventually by interacting with components seen on the screen). Vibe programming by business types will replace today's software engineers.

Where in reality can a CTO talk to a human and deploy it? It takes engineers to understand the requirements and to iterate with the CTO. The CTO has better things to do with their time than wrestle with an LLM all day.

I guarentee that the first thought in any good CTO's mind in that world is "How much payroll do computer babysitters deserve?"

They ask that already.

Right now we're trained computer masseuses, not yet computer babysitters.

And to torture the analogy further since Im already in this rabbit hole, masseuses and babysitters probably have to put in the same amount of effort in their work.