I was surprised to read they don't expect atmospheric burnup and are targeting a splash down in the Indian Ocean. I really hope someone didn't mess up some mundane detail in their calculations.
I suspect they actually do expect them to burn-up on re-entry... but by telling the FAA they may splashdown, it absolves them of any problems if for whatever reason they fail to fully do so. And then the public communication has to match what they told the FAA.
They would normally have to do a debris analysis. I would expect them to burn up, because we'll have a real problem if Starlink satellites start surviving reentry. But it's possible that since this is a very low injection point and speeds will be lower that some parts might survive. If they do, it makes Starship survival look less impressive though...
Survive as in "remain undamaged and functional"? Impossible. Survive as in "something solid makes it to the surface" is quite easy. Most satellites have debris land on Earth upon de-orbiting.
Yes they do. Whether something burns up is primarily based on melting point. Steel and titanium components typically survive while aluminum does not. The overall size and average density of the satellite do not matter - they break up into small pieces long before they experience significant heating.
