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How do you know it was COVID and not some other disease with similar symptoms? Also, why would you be confident that your experience generalizes?

Getting to “not one bit uncertain” from what you could possibly have known then shows poor reasoning skills.



There was only one thing going around in the Bay Area in January 2020, and the symptoms clearly lined up for everyone in my network.


How could you know that there was "only one thing going around?" That would be kind of weird. Maybe you and your friends got a cold?


If there were two things going around January 2020, I would have gotten both of them. This is common sense to anyone who has had school age children.




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