It's still worth discussing what may the effects be once it does become available.

It's hard to know exactly when. We're bad at estimating.

"progress is always slower than you think in the short term, and faster than you think in the long term."

I agree with this, but I also think that while we're not at 100% general AI, we are experiencing a gradual continuous approach towards it. The problems start now, and we have the opportunity to solve them while they're not as serious.

I almost agree with you; I would support that we do not currently have GAI, but I think we are near it, and regardless of how close we are to it, we currently have a lesser version of the same thing, which means a lesser version of the same problem.