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> That said, it's pretty obvious that economic sanctions aren't bringing about regime change.

On the flip side, you have China, where US pretty much helped build up their economy and hoped for a peaceful and democratic outcome. How well did that go?



The USSR and China and prime examples of sanctioning vs opening up. One is still around and persucting its people and the other is on the dust bin of history. The problem with the Cuba sanctions is that a large chunk of countries aren't sanctioning Cuba. If everybody got behind the sanctions regime change would happen. Half assing it won't cut it.


> the other is on the dust bin of history.

and yet US is spending taxpayer money to defend Ukraine.


Why wouldn’t we spend a small fraction of our military budget on bleeding an adversary dry?


same reason you don't corner a rabid animal


They aren't corned though. All they have to do is leave. Then they stop losing so many troops and they have their sanctions lifted.


What you wrote here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41025321

"So?

I'd rather live in the modern day, "unequally" with the rich, than starve or die of disease equally with the rich of the middle ages.

Just because the rich have 100Xed in quality of life over the last century, doesn't negate the fact that the poor have 10Xed in quality of life.

Making everyone equal is easy. Just make them all equally dead, starving, or miserable, just like they were in past centuries."

Shows a lack of historical knowledge. If all were so miserable, how did they built the greatest civilization, Christendom? Did Newton or Leibniz starve to death? The picture you are drawing here of past centuries is ahistorical and completely disregards the unbelievable quality of art and architecture that was possible during times where people were, according to you, "dead, starving, or miserable". (As if they aren't today.)

I don't want to live at all. I would kill myself immediately did I not fear God, Christ, and eternal damnation.


Shows a lack of historical knowledge. All that wealth of Imperial Europe was built off the backs of serfs and slaves.


The Jackson-Vanik amendment was only repealed in 2012, at the same point when the Magnitsky act was signed. I don't think Putin & co see a lifting of sanctions as a possibility, given past experience.


Ok, that doesn't change the fact that all that is happening is that they are losing more and more lives, military power, and are suffering significant economic damage.

Thats the point. They are taking nothing but losses. All for some land that is now worthless after the war.


They obviously see things differently. You cannot claim that the particular sanctions regime in place pushes Putin & co towards your desired course of action without understanding their motivations.


> without understanding their motivations

Oh they are absolutely have motivations against their own people dieing in the hundreds of thousands and they have motivations against them losing significant military assets and having massive amounts of economic damages.

Those are normal motivations they every county has.

That's why the best way to get them to change behavior is to "motivate" them with those consequences.

Current analysis is that Russia has maybe another year and a half left in their war before it ends due to these "motivational factors".

Still a ways to go, but manageable.


The MLRS weapon systems shouldn’t be creating corners if deployed effectively.


Define “small fraction” please.


We've spent a bit over $100B in 2.5 years. Our annual military budget is about $900B, so about 5% annual to strategically neuter the Russian military.


A few hundred Bradleys and Abrams, weapons systems that were designed to murder soviets, which we built by the thousands, in the hope that we could defend Europe from an invasion it turns out wasn't ever likely to happen.

Those machines are not fit for a war with China, which is our current fear, and have to be replaced anyway. It literally costs obscene amounts of money to scrap and disarm them, but it turns out it's very cheap to let them save a few Ukrainian lives.

Nearly every dollar "spent" for Ukraine was either spent in the 80s military build up or is loaned to Ukraine so they can purchase our stuff.


The US (and Russia...) made a commitment to protect Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up its newly-owned nuclear weapons after the USSR broke up.


Are you suggesting that USSR is invading Ukraine? Maybe we are living in different realities since we the USSR no longer exist.


Are you suggesting that Russia is not USSR's legal successor. Maybe we are living in different realities since Russia still exists.


Russia was a state of the USSR, not the USSR itself. That is like saying the Roman Empire exists today because Italy is the successor.


Don't make such far-flung analogies.

The Russia/USSR transition is more akin to that of the Roman Republic to the Principate/Dominate. Or the different stages of other closely related empires throughout history after dealing with internal regime, partial reversals and so forth.

Even Putin sees Russia/USSR as parts of a organic historic continuum, and this is a key component of his rhetoric. That the USSR's territorial losses are Russia's losses and must be reversed if Russia it to "save face" and so on.


In some aspects we could say that, given the high number of USSR tanks, ships and weapons that are being destroyed by the Ukrainian army just right now.

USSR was a necessary collaborator in this invasion.


The USSR is gone. It can't collaborate with anything. Did your great-great-great-great-great grandparents who died before the internet collbarate with you to write this post?


wouldn't have to if russia didn't invade a sovereign nation.




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