I think he’d much rather have a permanent and painful boil on America’s ass, like what the US has in Taiwan. Mexico isn’t cooperating, so maybe Cuba will. There’s precedent for that kind of thing, as well as for US military getting its ass handed to it while trying to “subjugate” Cuba.
Thankfully even CcP authoritarians have more sense than this. China is and will continue to foment unrest in South America to play the same role, but after watching china rape Africa’s resources for the last decade, they are far less likely to capitulate.
Fits his narrative better.