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EasyMark
on July 14, 2024
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Trump injured but ‘fine’ after attempted assassina...
I doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few points ahead in almost all the swing states.
fastball
on July 14, 2024
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I realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold.
[1]
https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...
jug
on July 14, 2024
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It helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.
HDThoreaun
on July 14, 2024
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The prediction markets always over hype recent events
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