Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

I doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few points ahead in almost all the swing states.


I realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold.

[1] https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...


It helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.


The prediction markets always over hype recent events




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: