The easy answer here would be to look at analyst estimates. If you notice nvidia selling 20 billion in H100s and the consensus revenue is 10 billion, then it's probably not priced in.
But that's been known for months now. At one point a bloomberg podcast mentioned in passing that nVidia inventory now has a lead time measured in months. Which kinda sounds like the makings of a bullwhip effect induced bubble[0]. Everybody wants inventory now, so they put in massive orders, hopefully get some fraction of what they asked for, and if they happily get too much they can, in theory, easily sell their surplus into the market. Think about how many "AI platforms" boil down to "we have GPUs!"
_If_ this is the bullwhip scenario, then it's basically a gamble about how many million cards nVidia can ship before their own short supply bubble bursts. Or the AI bubble more generally.
Exactly. Very few people have actual, factual knowledge about whether Wall Street traders analysts are right or wrong about some company performance metric. They say "they know" but it's just hunches and gut feelings. The people who actually know for a fact are insiders and cannot legally trade on the knowledge. Everyone else are just gamblers who think they "have a system" that works.
