Not really. You can only make these predictions about things bottlenecked by things that improve exponentially such as compute.
Neither the space program nor self driving are compute restrained.
The latter will probably be “solved” as we get closer to AGI, since you need some sort of human like reasoning for edge cases that require reasoning.
Another tech like this is batteries: There is no miracle jump in production batteries. They just improve about 10% YoY, both in energy density and cost.
So you can extrapolate when electric cars will be cheaper than gas cars to buy.
Neither the space program nor self driving are compute restrained.
The latter will probably be “solved” as we get closer to AGI, since you need some sort of human like reasoning for edge cases that require reasoning.
Another tech like this is batteries: There is no miracle jump in production batteries. They just improve about 10% YoY, both in energy density and cost.
So you can extrapolate when electric cars will be cheaper than gas cars to buy.
Intersects around 2035 last I checked.