I don't know about this. I don't think battery swapping scales up very well.
Firstly, I know someone who works on Daimler's electric trucks and he assures me that their electric powertrains are EXTREMELY dangerous just from the amount of power represented. Union operators have expressed negative interest in connecting/disconnecting the batteries outside of the factory.
Secondly, the economics - the battery pack on a Tesla already represents over half of the materials and manufacturing cost. And it's the only scarce thing about EVs. If you are a fleet operator and have to maintain a bank of batteries to charge, you may as well just buy the bodies to go with.
So I would guess that in an EV fleet future where the cost of batteries has dropped significantly, you will probably see the size of the fleets increase as operating costs drop.
> Union operators have expressed negative interest in connecting/disconnecting the batteries outside of the factory.
To be fair, union operators express negative interest in anybody outside their union doing anything that might be construed as otherwise the union's work.
Well, in this case, someone was really badly electrocuted when trying to connect the power leads between the truck battery and motor. So customers apparently "noped" out of wanting them self-serviceable.
> you will probably see the size of the fleets increase
This is already happening with municipal bus and school bus fleets. The bus count is over-provisioned to allow for the longer electric 'refueling' times.
As fleet managers understand, when a vehicle is being refueled it is out of service.
Citibike wants to connect to the city grid so they don't need to send technicians to every station to swap dead batteries. It's not too much of a stretch to think that, perhaps, the stations could recharge truck batteries, too, at some point. Many fewer residents bike during the winter, let alone during a snow storm, so you could, conceivably, sacrifice a bike space or two or five in December-February (or just when you know snow is coming). Stations are ubiquitous by now: especially in the denser areas, there's one every few blocks.
That's assuming you can deal with safety, theft and other related issues.
The other point I forgot to make is that, during a storm, you could ground a lot of other non-essential electric vehicles, e.g. buses, and place their batteries strategically throughout the city (at a bike station, or empty parking spots). Once the emergency is over, you're not stuck with a lot of excess inventory. That, again, assumes a lot: common batteries, etc.
Its already being used at the scooter level, scales fine there for small applications where batteries are as easy to replace as filling the tank of gas.
Firstly, I know someone who works on Daimler's electric trucks and he assures me that their electric powertrains are EXTREMELY dangerous just from the amount of power represented. Union operators have expressed negative interest in connecting/disconnecting the batteries outside of the factory.
Secondly, the economics - the battery pack on a Tesla already represents over half of the materials and manufacturing cost. And it's the only scarce thing about EVs. If you are a fleet operator and have to maintain a bank of batteries to charge, you may as well just buy the bodies to go with.
So I would guess that in an EV fleet future where the cost of batteries has dropped significantly, you will probably see the size of the fleets increase as operating costs drop.