Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

You've been all over this thread with some aggressive takes that are pretty seriously not supported.

> Turning dumb heat into electric power is expensive. Nothing that depends on doing that can ever compete with wind and solar, anymore.

This isn't even strictly true today when focusing on current "dumb heat sources":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#...

"cost of extension of operations of existing nuclear power plants (LTO, long-term operations) has the lowest LCOE of low-carbon energy sources; "

I'm going to go with the OECD and NEA on this one.

> Tritium doesn't grow on trees.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeding_blanket

Saying that there are unknown engineering challenges is kind of a "duh", otherwise we wouldn't be researching we would be implementing. As you also mentioned there are other alternatives which we could consider than tritium.

> Fission is not competitive, and gets less so by the day.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03062... yeah that's not true

> Fusion is nothing but a money pit (with the just barely-possible exception of D-3He).

We genuinely don't know if fusion is a money pit or not, because we don't have any idea how much a successful form will cost. Tritium blankets may be easy or not. Maybe helion's D-3HE will have a breakthrough. Maybe it's ICF.

I've not seen suggestions by anyone that wind and solar build-outs stop, or get diminished. Indeed at this point because the cost are low, industry will continue to invest in them regardless.

However, we will need a lot more energy production than folks think. We need to decarbonize the atmosphere. And that's going to require a lot of power.

All that aside, solar and wind are not getting you to mars in a timely fashion. We have reasons to research fusion that escape large commercial power generation.



Cost of solar and wind are still plummeting. Anything that can match them today won't tomorrow. OECD and NEA agree.

Not going to Mars sounds like a great plan. Sign me up!


We certainly need a lot more energy production but to decarbonize the atmosphere there has be a target level with an evidential basis on which to proceed. If it's considered (as by many) that we have a climate emergency (though this is not reported at all in the IPCC report) then any decarbonization at all will obviously serve for starters. If this is not the case then there are other considerations such as the fact that as CO2 levels have risen so has global food production - about 30% over the last 30 years.

Simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau.. https://sites.bu.edu/cliveg/files/2016/04/zhu-greening-earth...

This is not a surprise given that carbon is needed for plant growth, a fact well understood by commercial growers who pipe CO2 into their greenhouses. So one issue might be, if decarbonization is successful then what might be the acceptable level of reduction in global food supply?

Another issue relates to temperature. From an analysis of 974 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries it’s been concluded that twenty times more people die from the cold as from the heat.https://composite-indicators.jrc.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/... A recent paper (Dec 12 2022) regarding heart attacks states “extreme temperatures accounted for 2.2 additional deaths per 1,000 on hot days and 9.1 additional deaths per 1,000 on cold days.” Circulation. doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061832.

Do any of the reports present an ethical problem? No, they do not given an extreme interpretation of climate models.


Climate catastrophe denialism is a strange hill to choose to die on.

Direct influence on economic variables and individuals are the smallest of its effects.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: