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> Instead, provide confidence levels, increase confidence by doing the riskiest bits earlier, and give frequent status updates.

Right--you're trying to choose the winning move: not to play. That's not really an option.



Effective management - both by the manager and the managed - is about avoiding such zero sum games. Look for the win-win and do your best to deliver it.


This is fine advice, but the topic is the "manager's handbook" not other, better, management practices, so the advice is off-topic.

Did you read the section in question?

Advice about avoiding zero sum games isn't relevant to a discussion of a specific zero sum game prescribed by the manual we're discussing.




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