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I overheard a rather loud phone conversation yesterday where a guy was urging his friend not to use AstraZeneca under any circumstances. Such things spread like fire.


It's reasonable. It's kind of a trolley problem scenario. Do I actively play Russian roulette with 1 bullet in a 100,000 chamber gun, or do I passively try to avoid the game altogether?


> passively try to avoid the game altogether

Can't be done, you're avoiding yourself into a ~3/100 game.


Why 3/100? Covid is clearly killing far less than 3% of the infected, and far less than 3% of the general population when you factor in that not everyone is going to catch it.


Okay 3/100 is too high, latest sources estimate IFR ~1%, so 1/100 would be correct.


Still not right, because not 100% of people will get covid naturally.


Close enough, you can multiply by 0.75-0.5 if you wish, still awful odds.




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