Luck can play a role, but consider the confounding factors against luck:
1. Travel with China. There was a huge amount of inter-country traffic up until the New Year.
2. Population density. Japan is quite high, and this should increase the country's R0.
3. Population demographics. Over 20% of Japan's population is over 60. This should increase the CFR for the country.
So there are two basic scenarios. One is that Japan is somehow mis-counting patients and deaths (similar to kodokushi). This could also be intentional, in a misguided attempt to protect the economy and the Olympics, or it could simply be a bureaucratic flaw in their methodology.
The second is that something unique to how the Japanese culture, healthcare system, etc is giving them an advantage.
Once we're on the other side of this pandemic, there's going to be a world of fascinating research/study into how different countries reacted to COVID-19, and how successful they were.
I have been looking at it the other way. That it is not something about Japan making it better. There is something about Italy, Milan specifically, that makes it worse. Point I was able to isolate is air quality.
My hypothesis that had borne out rather well, if a place reports high severe cases, they have historically bad air. At the least bad air for the past three months.
China had terrible air quality until they shut everything down, yet their CFR is half of Italy's, and that's probably due to the fact that it started there and the learning curve was steep.
I'll note my hypothesis is exposure. Thought being that the elder in Milan have had years more exposure to the pollution than what I understand to be the more transient working class of China. (Specifically, the area hit.)
Rationally consider what conditions could be creating the current scenario, and keep all of them in mind when considering any news/claims that Japan is an outlier.
Also agree that COVID-19 will be fertile ground for dissertations in the future.
1. Travel with China. There was a huge amount of inter-country traffic up until the New Year. 2. Population density. Japan is quite high, and this should increase the country's R0. 3. Population demographics. Over 20% of Japan's population is over 60. This should increase the CFR for the country.
So there are two basic scenarios. One is that Japan is somehow mis-counting patients and deaths (similar to kodokushi). This could also be intentional, in a misguided attempt to protect the economy and the Olympics, or it could simply be a bureaucratic flaw in their methodology.
The second is that something unique to how the Japanese culture, healthcare system, etc is giving them an advantage.
Once we're on the other side of this pandemic, there's going to be a world of fascinating research/study into how different countries reacted to COVID-19, and how successful they were.