I think cruising along at Google is extremely different to cruising along as a minor regional tech company.
If you're at Google you're already clearly gifted and one of the leading people in your industry, and if you're cruising there then you're probably still doing absolutely stellar work.
I think people overestimate the proportion of equally talented engineers that don't apply to the FAANGs of the world for personal (geographic) reasons.
That's not quite what I argued though - I said if you're at Google then you're certainly extraordinarily talented and you're going to be a leader in your field. You may be that elsewhere of course, but you'd certainly be that at Google. I didn't say that if you weren't at Google you wouldn't be talented.
You may not recognize it, but this is a statistical distribution argument. :) It is assuming that there is a steep gradient between Google and "outside-of-google".
It is hard to prove that this is true regardless of the intentions of the statement or what was left unsaid.
If you're at Google you're already clearly gifted and one of the leading people in your industry, and if you're cruising there then you're probably still doing absolutely stellar work.