Less supply of able and willing truck drivers at their current level of compensation means companies will have to increase said compensation to try and keep or attract truck drivers to avoid decreasing capacity. Increased driver compensation means increased costs for the company employing said drivers, which in turn means passing on the costs to whomever wants things shipped. Econ 101 supply and demand curves.
Why would there be less supply? Because the drivers won't have the burden of payroll taxes or workers compensation?
Costs may go up, but they could very well go down--economies of scale in accounting, payroll, etc. Even if they go up, the real question is by how much, and the portion that would be passed on to customers; depending on elasticities of the supply and demand curves, some of it might be borne by the trucking companies themselves.
And then there's the elephant in the room: the presumption that the ABC test would necessarily rope in all independent truckers and completely destroy the business model. There's an outside chance that some segment of "independent" truckers--the kind driving the narrative--with multiple, varied customers and schedules of their choosing will remain as independent contractors, especially if they travel interstate.
More likely they'll have significant latitude in being able to incorporate themselves, so long as their business entity rigorously handles payroll taxes, insurance, etc. Because those things are trivial to automate--and I'd bet there's at least one startup founder on HN providing and bundling these services--the impact might prove minimal in the long haul. Independent contractors are supposed to be managing these things by themselves, anyhow; otherwise we're simply defending scofflaws.
The new test for independent contractors may turn out to be a bad idea, but it's not so obviously bad on its surface that we can make sweeping claims irrespective of context. Remember, UPS has more revenue and better profits than FedEx, even though UPS relies on unionized, employee truckers while FedEx flounders with their independent contractor model.
And the new test originated in court in response to legitimate concerns with the ride-sharing model. If it makes sense there, maybe it's worthwhile to keep an open mind about its salience in the trucking industry. Is independent trucking dead in Massachusetts; did trucking costs rise? Massachusetts has had a similar test since the 1990s and an identical test since 2004. I can't find hard data, just a few court cases (suggesting litigation might be minimal) and hyperbolic reporting by industry, bereft of revenue numbers.
