Like: 1.5% of neurosurgeons suffer an injury that prevents them from performing surgery. Then adjust all calculations based on this.
As with everything: to know if a single flip coin is going to be heads or not is basically impossible, but over a large enough number, you can be certain the number of heads will be close to 50%.
A single neurosurgeon? Who knows?
The entire population of neurosurgeons? Now we can use actuarial science and measure everything in micromorts.
Like: 1.5% of neurosurgeons suffer an injury that prevents them from performing surgery. Then adjust all calculations based on this.
As with everything: to know if a single flip coin is going to be heads or not is basically impossible, but over a large enough number, you can be certain the number of heads will be close to 50%.
A single neurosurgeon? Who knows?
The entire population of neurosurgeons? Now we can use actuarial science and measure everything in micromorts.