After Brexit and Trump, the next milestone on this curious series is the French presidential elections in May 2017. The far right candidate Le Pen is leading the polls, but winning at the second round of the election is not going to be easy. Although, no doubt that Brexit, the Trump election, potential new terrorist attacks in France as well as the developping migrant crisis are going to give her a boost.
But like Trump she is unlikely to control the parliament. The republican party will likely temper Trump through the senate. And without a majority at the French parliament, a French president is more like a queen of England, just with the nuclear red button in her hand.
• The Geert Wilders trial in Netherlands. GW is the most popular politician in NL right now. He is on trial for what is essentially pure political speech, he asked a crowd if they wanted more/fewer Moroccans (i.e. visa policy), they said fewer, he said "OK we'll sort that out" or words to that effect. He is boycotting his own trial. If he is found guilty and punished, it's hard to believe this will go down well or hurt his support. Should be resolved by end of the month.
• Austria rerunning its presidential election. Last time the "far right" candidate Norbert Hofer lost to his Green/left wing opponent. But there was voter fraud and the vote was so close that the amount of fraud was larger than the margin of the win, so the courts required a rerun. If Hofer wins ... well, the President of the EU Commission has said Austria would be frozen out of the EU as a punishment for voting the wrong way. Should be resolved in December.
• General election in the Netherlands next year.
• Election in France, as you note.
• Towards the end of the year election in Germany. Very volatile politics there. Turkey is threatening to unleash a torrent of migration on Europe unless it gives Turkey what it wants, which the EU doesn't want to do. Germany's Trump equivalent (Frauke Petry) started losing support when the migrant crisis began slackening after the Turkey deal. If it collapses then AfD may see a resurgence in time for the election.
GW is only polling at 24/150 or so seats right now. That makes him the shared biggest in our fragmented landscape and he may well do better, but he won't get close to a majority and other parties will shun him (even though it looks like they'll need to form a coalition of five parties or so).
And nobody talks about visa policy when they discuss Moroccans, it's about the Moroccan-origin youth who live here, have a relatively high crime rate, are usually born here and often have both Moroccan and Dutch passports. Attacking that group is his party's main theme, and I'd say it was clear incitement of hate.
The issue about the Netherlands you should add to your list is that it is likely that there will be referenda about all new EU treaties, and they will all be voted down. And Rutte already doesn't know what to do with the Ukraine vote.
And the ongoing yearly Zwarte Piet shitstorm, I think there's going to be violence this year around what's supposed to be a kid's party. It's a very related issue, people feel they are told by outsiders that they have to change their own culture in their own country.
Sinterklaas, St Nicholas, comes to the Netherlands in a steam boat from Spain this weekend, is here for a few weeks, and gives lots of presents to kids on 5 december. In the US his name lives on as Santa Claus. He is very old and wears a kind of bishop's clothes (http://www.bitesandstories.com/blog/2015/12/4/the-4-dutch-de... )
He has helpers known as Zwarte Piet, black Pete. In times past they punished bad kids, but nowadays they are a lot of fun, entertain kids, hand out candy, and they are the ones who bring the presents to kids, through the chimney.
Already since the 1960s there has been a movement to abolish this, but that has always been small.
Since 2010 or so some people from minority groups have been more vocal, saying they get called Zwarte Piet on the streets, that this is a racist tradition, and that it needs to go. Apologists claim that the blackness comes from travelling through the chimney (that's what children are usually told). Some lady from the United Nations Committee against Racism or so, a black woman from the Caribbean, appears to have looked at the situation for about five minutes and declared the whole practice clearly racist.
More and more voices currently say that we should gradually change Zwarte Piet -- why not have some black streaks in his face only (from the chimney), or use lots of different non-skin colors? It's not a huge change, children will be fine with it, and these people who feel discriminated obviously have at least some point. National TV has a daily program in the Sinterklaas period ("Sinterklaasjournaal") and they are very slowly changing Piet, for instance. This movement is especially big in Amsterdam and among the highly educated.
But a large part of the country is vehemently against it along the lines of "who are these outsiders to tell us to change our Dutch traditions", "if they don't like it why don't they go back to their own countries", calling people who argue for change traitors, and so on. Feelings are especially strong in more rural areas and among the non educated.
Now people who say they'll dress up their kids as Piet using just some streaks, or in a different color, receive death threats on the Internet in huge numbers. The discussion rages for almost the entire year now, not just in november/december. That the election is in march, not long after december, is pointed out as working in favour of Geert Wilders.
The first showing of this year's Sinterklaasjournaal is tonight, and the rumour is that it will have Piets of all kinds of colours. Sinterklaas arrives this saturday. I'm going to watch live with my kids, I would like to dress them as Piet with some streaks, but I really am too afraid of being beaten up. It'll be civil war in a few years...
It's a single silly issue that runs exactly along the dividing line of all these related things.
> The far right candidate Le Pen is leading the polls
But, she's not?
Alain Juppé is, an old-school right-wing politician. Le Pen is second and the third is a party that is not quite far-left but still far enough to the left for the communist party to ally with it.
> winning at the second round of the election is not going to be easy
I don't think this has any chance of happening. But of course, who knows...
She has a good chance of ending up leading the first round. However so far she only has a chance to win 2nd round if she's against Hollande. And I don't see how he could get to the 2nd round.
I don't think this can happen, but there are still 6 months left and I didn't think Trump could win either.
But like Trump she is unlikely to control the parliament. The republican party will likely temper Trump through the senate. And without a majority at the French parliament, a French president is more like a queen of England, just with the nuclear red button in her hand.