Thats the takeaway. People buy farmland for reasons other than property values since property values of farmland basically increase at inflation. It feels very humdrum.
Farmland is a form of industrial capital. It's only worth what you can make with it. Since the prices of agricultural products are flat or declining (agricultural productivity has improved) and transportation gets better over time (so farm location matters less), that exerts downward pressure on farm prices.
As population in developed countries levels out and starts to decline, overall property values should decline. That happens, but not in a helpful way. What seems to happen is that population concentrates more. This is very visible in Japan. Tokyo and Osaka are doing fine, while small towns are winding down as young people leave. It's true for parts of the US - Detroit, Cleveland, Youngstown - where the heavy industry left and nothing replaced it.
I disagree. While the price of agricultural product declines, the production increases. And because transportation gets better, the population change in the developed countries matters less as you get to serve the world market. Also, at least in europe, we get massive subventions that end up as an investment without risk. And also: population is not a good measure for the need of agricultural need. For example, the growing demand for meat in China is said to be of greater impact to the world market than the population increase.
