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I don't trust China's population numbers at all. Officially before the one child policy they were at 800 million. After 30 years of 1 child policy somehow they were at 1.2 billion. The math isn't mathing. How do you have explosive population growth when birth control is brutally enforced?

The official fertility rates for that period was 1.3. For reference: 2.1 is the replacement rate.

If anything their total population went down during one child policy.


> Officially before the one child policy they were at 800 million. After 30 years of 1 child policy somehow they were at 1.2 billion. The math isn't mathing.

Even if I take your numbers at face value, it is absolutely possible for this math to math. To simplify massively, if the average person dies at 80 years old, the population growth today depends on the number of births 80 years ago, compared to today. Not 30 years ago. The population may have grown massively between 30 and 80 years ago, so that the absolute number of births remains high, despite a low birth rate.


Yep, people don't understand moving averages with a wide range. The old population getting older massively changes demographics. You start looking like Japan where a huge portion of the population is above retirement age.

And this fits for China where the standard of living has massively increased. What would throw off most Americans is that in 1962 the average life expectancy in China was only 50 years old, and has increased to roughly 78 today. 28 additional years of life is huge and it was so rapid that it would create a massive increase in population.

This also reverses causality on the one child population rule. They didn't add the rule because their population was huge at the time, it was added because increased life expectancy with nothing else would have increased their population now to something like 1.7 to 2 billion.


And inverse is also true, so that China’s population is currently shrinking and aging, despite the “1 child” policy being abandoned a decade ago.


The one child policy only really mattered in the cities, rural China had different rules. There is also no incentive for China to lie, quite the opposite, underreporting their population would be a boon for their success on the global stage: imagine if they are achieving what they achieve, with half as many people?


Many companies setup branches and sent IP to China in exchange for access to those billion consumers. Fewer consumers means a company might target India, etc. instead of China first.


Yes, except that China also uses its population as a military threat. It going down would take away some of the impact of that. So it always needs to go up, to reinforce it.


Does it? Russia has 1/10th the purported population of China, lost most of their military aged men in a conflict that has exposed Russia's supposed military might as a work of fiction and yet the west remains scared senseless of Russia because of the nuclear threat. China has nuclear weapons, whether they have 10 million or 100 million men they can send to the frontlines to absorb bullets is irrelevant to their national security.


Europe is right to panic. It exposed that Europe was relying only on the US and the general world order. And the US turned out to be unreliable.

Imagine this scenario: tomorrow the Ukrainian front collapses, and Russia rapidly captures a significant part of Ukraine. Then the Ukrainian government gets Venezuellaed by Putin (maybe with Trump's help), and the new government becomes loyal to Moscow.

Then a new charismatic military leader deposes Putin and forms an alliance with the Ukrainian army against Europe. With rhetoric like: "Look, Europe just used you. They never gave you enough weapons to win against Russia but just enough for a stalemate. They were giving Putin hundreds of billions for gas and oil, too afraid of cold weather while you were dying on the front lines. They hoped to kill both of our countries. Now let's join together and show them how the war should be fought properly". And then a battle-hardened 500000-strong army marches towards Kaliningrad, locking Poland and the Baltics behind the front lines.

It's an exceedingly unlikely scenario. But not impossible. And it's not the _only_ similar scenario anymore. There's also Turkey with a dictator dreaming about writing his name in history books. Serbia is getting more anti-EU.


Mostly in the past before they were well industrialized. When you had India with over a billion people as a threat, it was a good measure. Now most of the surrounding countries have fallen below population replacement rate excess population can cause issues with economic growth in places resources and space are constrained.


> The math isn't mathing. How do you have explosive population growth when birth control is brutally enforced?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum


Just to put some numbers into perspective. China and Europe have roughly the same amount of land, and Europe has a population of 744m (vs your est of <800m for China). So like idk how that would make sense for them to be the same range of population when China seems way more overcrowded.


> So like idk how that would make sense for them to be the same range of population when China seems way more overcrowded.

Different population distributions. In particular, the population of China is concentrated in the eastern half of the country, with very few people living in the western half. Contrast to Europe, which from what I understand is more evenly spread out.


When I went to China for work, over half the people I met there had siblings. So I really wonder how effective the one child policy was. And these are people in their 30-40s.


Honestly, I'm not really sure.

I assume regret. Perhaps someone else will take it and finish it release it on steam and make bank. Who knows.

Part of the reason of asking the question is I was hoping to hear from other people who have done something similar so they can share their experience and feelings on the matter.


What if the game was completely done? To your satisfaction, which you are entitled to change, but you've been the only judge so far.

Whether you open-sourced it or not your next step might be to start building a community to allow for enthusiasts' input.

That would be pretty much of a major change without additional coding required.

This would not be the same game effort from you compared to coding it all by yourself any time you have anything to do with it. Like it has been so far.

You would have to be very careful about the community you keep, but it should be about the opposite of isolating.

Now back where we started, OTOH what if you were simply "done with the game", but the game itself is far from done?

I estimate you've got more major milestones in mind and that would mean a lot more of the same kind of effort.

As you are considering, opening it up could give it continued progress whether or not you contribute any more yourself, also whether or not it's you who builds a community.

But it might be a unique opportunity to build a pretty similar community as if the game was far more complete.

Starting right now without having to wait.

Could be the least isolating your progress has been since the beginning.

And community building or participation could be just the thing for a breath of fresh air, and you were probably going to do it sooner or later anyway.


Thank you for that. That's great advice.


Excellent work man! I know some low level guys who would really appreciate this.


Thanks, that's great to hear! What platforms do they develop for?


I mean saying ALL estimations are wrong is exaggeration.

As they say, "Even a broken clock is right twice a day"

This has been my experience. I don't disagree with the content of the article, really just the exaggerated title.

Every now and again we do get a 100% correct estimation. It doesn't happen often. In fact it's quite rare. But its more than never.


I'm not sure I trust Microsoft's take on a debloat script for their own OS.

Sure it will have less stuff, but I suspect there may be some remnants purposefully left behind.


There definitely are. I don't see anything touching most of the telemetry here, cortana, etc.

This looks like a basic default apps store uninstall and not much else.


What jumps out at me is that it doesn't touch OneDrive.

You could argue two potential reasons for this:

1. This script removes only AppX packages. OneDrive is an *.msi package

2. OneDrive is something they reinstall if you remove it, so they really are cramming it down your throat. They wouldn't include it in any debloat script.


No surprise here.

Certain drugs rely on being chemical broken down into certain things to be absorbed. Gut bacterial help with this process.

Additionally bacteria can release their own byproducts that can function as catalysts or inhibitors.


Is this even legal?


Interesting idea here, but will it pass?


Bills like that tend to get dumped into a committee and ignored. They don't make it out to the full House for a vote.

So it's entirely for show, but that doesn't mean it's worthless. It's intended to shift the Overton window: "A few years ago we couldn't even have introduced this. Now we have, and now it's something people can talk about. So we'll introduce it again next year, and more people will start to talk about it, until they start to demand it."

So this news story is the most they're going to get out of this... but they did get that. It's now in front of people. And now maybe just legalizing some drugs will seem more feasible.


Not in the Senate.


Yeah I have heard both sides of the debate.

Strongest argument for lab leak seems to sourced here:

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-th...


Also having sound output issues especially with a soundbar. It's kind of sad. I've decided it's better to just not use the soundbar.


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