Its silly to talk about a bubble when all of the major AI companies just recieved 3-5yrs runway in VC. I normally hate the term FUD, bit in this case it's proveably true. Even if these companies collapse in 5 years, thats a lifetime away in tech years, not an immediate bubble.
I don't think it's particularly silly when the rest of the economy is by all indications in a deep recession. If the tech market is literally the only thing holding up the market then you have to ask how and why.
We're at a record number of subprime borrowers falling behind on car loans, which historically is a really bad economical sign, consumer sentiment is at an all time low and the labor market isn't looking great either. Anecdotally, prices have risen sharply and people are getting sharply priced out of basic necessities due to rising costs.
The subprime loan data can be seen here [1] and consumer sentiment here [2]. Job losses are much harder to estimate given that the current admin is actively refusing to post job numbers (for perhaps, obvious reasons) but we've seen other sites estimate that we're seeing record layoffs [3]. And that's before we get into stuff like tariff policy or the hidden costs of throwing a lot of government employees into unemployment.
The last financial crisis was 2008. Are you saying there was a tech bubble in 2008? The economy can do bad in lots of sectors while others are gaining traction.
S&P500 isn’t “the economy” but in the context of talk of a bubble it seems like we’re talking about equities not the whole economy. So let’s just keep taking the short cut …
The top is over performing so concentration is real but it’s not the only growth driver:
True or not true hard to say without better definitions of terms but seems like current profile is not ultra common in history but it’s not a bunch of losers getting diluted out.
Having jobs like uber and Lyft available - self employed on your own time - are terrific stop gaps when people lose thier real job, or need a little extra for thier familly. Doing away with them will create a much worse society.
If there were a servbay.yaml file that a person could export & commit this would probably go down smoother from some folks.
If you added a feature to push/fetch and sync the local development database from an s3 (or like bucket) it would solve one of the real core problems of new developers getting started.
That nginx proxy probably works 99.999% of the time, but oh boy, is that .001% going to tick someone off. Proxy's always add a small layer of complexity that can fubar things in strange ways, i know from running many of proxies in production just fine until that tiny little app/proxy config change that borks it. I haven't dug in enough yet, but i hope it can be bypassed.
Ambitious project that I think has some legs. A lot of devs dislike docker and many teams struggle to use it well anyway (for instance, a good dev Dockerfile is usually not the same as a good production Dockerfile). You will need to make this more "IAC-like" if you want to beat it though, imho.
I personally think we are in the pre-broadband era of AI. That is, what is currently being built will contribute to some AI dot-com 1.0 bubble burst, but after that there will be some advancements in it's distribution model that will allow it to thrive and infiltrate our society at a core level. Right now it's a bunch of dreamers building the pets.com that no one asked for, but after all the competition is shaken off, there will definitely be some clear winners, and maybe an Amazon.com of sorts for AI that people will adopt.
Similar fear mongering when calculators came about. No one got dumber, we just got faster at doing simple math. WOrking out complex math will always be interesting to those who really want to do it, and the rest likely wont contribute mu ch anyway - thier just consumers. Let the kids have thier wordy calculators, it actually may unblock critical paths of success needed for someone to really go deep.
Yep. I force memorized so many calculations because our teachers constantly told us that in the future we wouldn't always have a calculator with us.
It was helpful, I got pretty far along in collegiate math without tutors or assistance thanks to the hard calculation skills I drilled into my head.
But, counterpoint, if I leave my calculator/computer/all in one everything device at home on any given day it can ruin my entire day. I haven't gone 72 hours without a calculator in nearly a decade.
Until firefox fixes it's identity model it will never be useful for me, a systems engineer.
Yes, i'm aware of firefox profiles. it's implementation is hard to use and generally confusing. it requires going to secret pages, and quite frankly, i found it worked like hot garbage.
Its just a number assigned to every American person usually at birth nowadays. It is assigned the the Social Security Administration. It was designed as a Social Security account number, but is also used as a Tax Identification Number by the IRS. And a lot of places treat it like it is some super secret password, but it is just a number, and it is a number that everyone wants, and everyone and their dog- including multiple government agencies- has made publicly available, so now everyone and their dog and their dogs cousins dog has access to them, so it makes absolutely no sense why anyone would treat them as secret.
