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Are we post peak?

Everyone is worried about AI for good reason but if he's the promise is true then we see significant productivity improvements.

The pie might be shared out worse than even today but there would be more pie.

We are in a period of deglobalisation, but also a period of reorganisation. Today's supply chain is less efficient than 2021s. We are materially poorer as a result. But after the dust settles, it will be a lot more efficient than it is right now. Even with no ai.

Potentially we are in a dip. Stuff for worse, but it can get better.


Net worth is a funny metric.

Joe has a 300k house with 100k equity and 200k mortgage. He has 100k in stocks in a 401k. Net worth negative 100k.

Pete has $300 in his cheques account, and isn't eligible for loans or mortgage. Net worth positive $300

Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.


Most people would consider Joe's networth to be $200k.


> Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

Yeah, because Joe’s net worth is $200,000 and Pete’s is $300

House equity = current value - mortgage balance

You subtracted the mortgage twice, so your math is off by $200,000.00


Substitute some numbers until the example makes sense, the point is that net worth can be misleading.


Joe is on the hook for his mortgage and so his monthly cashflow must be higher to afford to live. However his net worth is larger and so he is richer.

This is why middle class people often feel poor than those who are poor: they make more money and have more in total, but they also have large bills and if something happens those bills will catch up with them fast.


And that is the interesting part - for a given sudden bill of a certain size, someone more wealthy on paper can have much worse outcomes.


This feels like one of those PEMDAS posts on facebook where everyone comes to different results and argues endlessly about it. So let me add my 2¢:

if you have 100K in equity and owe 200K on your mortgage, then you’re net -100K on your house

that combines with the 100K in the retirement account to produce a net worth of $0

Where is my mistake?


Net worth isn't equity - mortgage + 401k. Net worth is assets - liabilities. Equity is not an asset; the house is. So is the 401k. The mortgage is a liability. So Joe's net worth is 100k (IRA) + 300k (value of house) - 200k (mortgage) = 200k positive net worth.

(Another way of thinking about equity, specifically, is it is the real estate contribution to net worth, because it is what is left when you subtract the real estate liability (mortgage) from the real estate asset (value of house). That's why you shouldn't subtract the mortgage from the equity: equity is what's left after you've already subtracted the mortgage.)

(Edit: Adjusted sign in first equation to subtract mortgage. It's probably more technically accurate to keep it as addition and consider the mortgage to be a negative value, but I believe it's more straightforward and intuitive for most people as it is now represented.)


Joe’s net worth is $200k. Why on earth would you value the home at $0?

Net worth = assets - liabilities


Take a Damm Small Linux. Package manager (apt) optional.

I do think a lot of what you are rejecting (automatic updates, centralised package signing, permissions) are solutions to security problems that you might actually have.


I don't think security problems should cause these systemic problems. Damn Small, you say? I'll check it out.


Something to be said for requiring the human to do something related like press go every time the vehicle starts from a complete stop, or annotate "threats" detected in the 3d view.

This is a safety problem that needs solving. Just detecting when they sleep isn't a good solution.


I think citymapper tried to execu this as a pivot. They had an idea to do it in London and other countries and did trial it for a while. Not sure why it (presumably) failed.

I'd note that startup money of the is much harder to get in London, so a US startup might be able to force the idea from experiment to profitability.


We live in a very complex system, beyond any one persons comprehension. Some people think devolved decision making allocating resources to things like, advertising better, is the most efficient way of allocating resources. The invisible hand. How much is bullshit and how much is just beyond your awareness? If you were king and allocating so the work, would it be better? For who? I'm doubtful about bullshit jobs.


Seems like ofcom picked thier targets to create precedent fur using ISP blocks against non compliant companies.

Case law is important in the UK because laws are vaguely written and thier specifics are established in court.

By going after entities that can't comply and don't have a big legal budget like 4chan, they can go through the motions and establish that ISP level blocks against non complying companies are okay.

They can then hit progressively more difficult targets until they get to X and tiktok.


I think it needs a water gun. If the diaper was a spray on layered rubber, like a sponge then an impermeable layer, and then you sprayed a solvent to clear the old diaper and poop and then spray on a new one. You'd just need to slot them into styrups briefly or some socks on strings to move the legs into a good position.

But can this be done with baby skin and lung safe chemicals at a reasonable temperature?

Point being humanoid designs for robots that manipulate objects designed for humans are an artificially hard problem we have decided to fail at solving.


Yeah I also think we should just replace the baby with a spherical squishy lump of celluloid-wrapped fat with no limbs. Much more convenient.


It's more common to replace them with dogs.


I can see dog-walking robots happen


Sorry, but wear is the recursive protocol trope? Also do you know a good list of these tropes for llm spotting?


If you read through postings of people who are under so-called “ChatGPT psychosis” there are some common themes to the LLM output they use as their proof that ChatGPT is producing epiphanies from their ideas.

For some reason, calling things “recursive” and talking about “protocols” are common. The second post I clicked on in this blog has a section called “recursive protocol” with similar content to all of the other ChatGPT style writing. The subheading talking about “UFO markets” and all of the flowcharts purporting to describe reality are also similar to other ChatGPT fake profound output.


Sorry, typo, I meant to ask 'what'. Agree there are tropes in llm outputs, specific and strangely not specific to a vendor. Very useful for recognising generated content. I was hoping you were aware of a good article to find more in.


Accurate virtual try on however is quite difficult, and users will quickly learn to distrust platforms that just generate something that"looks right".

You can prompt with a normal size 8 dress and "kim jungle un wearing a dress" and it will show you something that doesn't help you understand whether that dress would fit or not. You can ask for a tube dress and it will usually give him a big bust to hold it up. It's not useful for the purpose of visualing fit.

It will definitely be used for such just like image models already are for cheap tenu clothes, and our onions shopping experience will get worse.

Maybe this needs purpose built models like vibe-net or maybe you cab train a general purpose model to do it, but if they were spending the effort necessary to do so they'd be calling it out.


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