No, that’s why you have a bunch of prompts make artifacts before the prompt that writes code, and prompts afterwards that run tests on code, etc…if you are just vibe coding code with one prompt, it’s not going to work out very well.
Eventually new capacity will come online, and the money the DRAM companies are making are going to accelerate even ,ore new capacity. If you can get your new capacity going before your competitors, maybe you can avoid a bubble burst. If you don’t build new capacity, your competitors will, etc, etc…
They're not building any new manufacturing capacity though. They assume this is a demand bubble and they don't want supply to exceed demand after it pops.
multiple major DRAM factories are currently being built or planned, driven by AI demand and government incentives. Micron is constructing a massive $100 billion "megafab" complex in New York, with groundbreaking occurring in January 2026, and is building new facilities in Idaho. Other projects include expansion in Singapore and Japan.
Key DRAM Factory Construction Projects:
Micron Technology (USA): Building a $100 billion, 4-fab complex in Clay, New York (first production expected around 2030) and a new $15 billion, 2-fab project in Boise, Idaho.
Micron (Global): Investing in expanding capacity in Singapore and Taiwan.
Nanya Technology (Taiwan): Previously initiated a $10.69 billion DRAM facility in New Taipei, Taiwan.
A quick search tells me the megafab in New York was announced years ago, the Singapore fab is for NAND flash, and the Taiwan fab already exists and they're buying it. So none of those are in response to the AI demand for RAM, are they?
I get that you are an AI skeptic but you can do better than that with a quick search these days. HBM for high end (commercial) GPUs.
SK Hynix
The current HBM market leader is fast-tracking multiple "megafabs" and packaging centers.
Cheongju, South Korea (P&T7): A new $13 billion advanced packaging and testing plant dedicated to stacking and testing HBM chips. Construction is set to begin in April 2026, with completion by late 2027.
Cheongju, South Korea (M15X): This fab is being fast-tracked for HBM4 mass production, with the first cleanroom now expected to open in February 2027.
Yongin, South Korea: SK Hynix is investing roughly $22 billion in the first fab of a massive new semiconductor cluster. Operations are planned to start in February 2027.
West Lafayette, Indiana, USA: A $3.87 billion advanced packaging site that will integrate HBM directly onto GPUs. Construction fencing was installed in February 2026, with production targeted for late 2028.
Samsung Electronics
Samsung is accelerating its "Shell First" strategy to secure production space ahead of competitors.
Pyeongtaek, South Korea (P4 & P5): Samsung has advanced the construction of the P5 cleanroom by several months, with a new operational target of late 2027. The P4 line is expected to come online even earlier, likely during 2026.
Taylor, Texas, USA: This $17 billion "megafab" is designed for advanced logic and HBM packaging. While hit by delays, it is now targeting a late 2026 opening.
Micron Technology
Micron is diversifying its HBM production across the U.S. and Asia to grow its market share.
Boise, Idaho, USA (ID1 & ID2): The ID1 fab reached a key milestone in June 2025 and is expected to start wafer output in the second half of 2027. ID2 is planned to follow shortly after.
Onondaga County, New York, USA: Micron officially broke ground in January 2026 on a $100 billion "megafab" complex, though significant supply is not expected until near 2030.
Hiroshima, Japan: A planned $9.6 billion HBM-focused fab is expected to come online between 2027 and 2028.
Singapore & Taiwan: Micron began construction on a $24 billion wafer facility in Singapore in January 2026 and acquired a fab in Taiwan for $1.8 billion to rapidly expand DRAM capacity by late 2027.
For lower end GPUs, like what goes into Apple machines.
New LPDDR Production Facilities
Samsung (Pyeongtaek P4 & P5): Samsung is converting several NAND flash lines to DRAM and accelerating the P4 and P5 fabs in South Korea. While these fabs support HBM, they are also designed for mass-producing 6th-generation 1c DRAM, which will form the basis of the next-gen LPDDR6 modules expected to debut in 2026.
SK Hynix (Icheon & M15X): SK Hynix is planning an 8-fold increase in 1c DRAM production by the end of 2026. This capacity will be split between HBM and "general-purpose" DRAM, which includes the LPDDR variants used in mobile and laptop chips.
Micron (Boise, Idaho - ID1): Micron's new ID1 fab in Boise is currently under construction, with structural steel completion reached in late 2025. It is scheduled to begin wafer output in the second half of 2027, focusing on leading-edge DRAM that includes LPDDR for the U.S. market.
The "Memory Wall" for Apple
The primary challenge is that HBM production requires significantly more wafer area than standard LPDDR. Consequently, even as these new factories open, the shortage of commodity DRAM (LPDDR5X/LPDDR6) is expected to persist through 2028 because manufacturers find HBM far more profitable.
OTOH, LLM inference tends to have very predictable memory access patterns. So well-placed prefetch instructions that can execute predictable memory fetches in parallel with expensive compute might help CPU performance quite a bit. I assume that this is done already as part of optimized numerical primitives such as GEMM, since that's where most of the gain would be.
I load and unload the dishwasher, so it’s a protocol by one person doing it. I do have to tell my wife to use more bowl like dishes and less bowels lest the top be too full and the bottom not full enough. I’ve purchased dishes that fit those dimensions (they can go on the bottom but are still bowel-like) especially to satisfy dishwasher loading constraints.
A dishwasher is a game changer, especially if you have a baby, but even if you don’t. No need for a drying rack, no guessing if you cleaned well enough, and less water usage.
If your dishwasher is your drying rack, it is hugely space inefficient compared to my wire ones on the counter. The way I wash dishes uses less water than a dishwasher. I suppose dishwasher users consider that inadequate, but I'm a filthy rebel.
And I don't really have a feel for whether more cleanliness is a benefit compared to the hormetic effect of exercising the immune system.
> The way I wash dishes uses less water than a dishwasher.
Could you elaborate on this? My understanding is even if you're using a sink/basin filled with soapy water this is still almost always less efficient than a dishwasher.
You can wash and rinse a full load of dishes by hand with 3 gallons of water? Seems possible only if you aren't rinsing, but a dishwasher rinses too...
My guess is that since I couldn't possibly fill the dishwasher before using it, it would be using 3 gallons for one person's dishes per meal, and I doubt I use a whole gallon while hand washing.
> My guess is that since I couldn't possibly fill the dishwasher before using it
Do you own very few dishes or something? That's the only reason I can imagine not being able to fill it before needing to run it. Even before having a kid my wife and I could easily fill the dishwasher daily since we cook quite a bit.
Lidar doesn’t really give you much to “see”, just shape and distance…so I’m a bit confused how it can be used for invasive surveillance, do you mean when fused with vision input it somehow allows it to infer more privacy stuff?
Autopilot isn’t full self driving (FSD), most cars these ship with smart cruise control (what autopilot basically is). Do you have fatality statistics for FSD?
If we are just talking about smart cruise control, most cars are using cameras and radar, not lidar yet. But Tesla is special since it doesn’t even use radar for its smart cruise control implementation, so that could make it less safe than other new cars with smart cruise control, but Autopilot was never competing with Waymo.
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