> However, in the nearly four years since the 4680 battery was unveiled in 2020 and began mass production at the end of 2023, companies like CATL and BYD have reduced battery costs to RMB 0.4/Wh. Even if Tesla meets its cost reduction target by the end of this year, according to multiple engineers and industry insiders, the cost of 4680 batteries may still range between RMB 0.8-1/Wh, which is twice that of CATL and BYD batteries. Moreover, the safety, cycle life, and charging speed of this battery are weaker than mainstream batteries.
The future of EV transport is either ultra cheap sodium ion /lfp or ultra dense sulfur /solid state.
Tesla's entire battery manufacturing/packaging advantage lead is gone and is probably a legacy disadvantage, or will be soon.
If 200 wh/kg is reached by sodium ion, that is a 300ish mile car with no cobalt, nickel, or lithium that should be fundamentally cheaper than an ICE. It also should enable a dirt cheap 200ish city car or a cheap 40-60 mile Phev.
Even if the CEO didn't destroy the brand with Nazi salutes, Teslas days as a high margin car maker were over. The stock price is unhinged from reality in an unprecedented manner.
