I don’t buy the framing that this is some grand “debtor’s strategy.” Trump’s relationship to debt has been mostly survival — bankruptcies, restructurings, junk bonds — not some masterclass in macroeconomics. The US dollar isn’t a casino balance sheet; it’s a global reserve currency with network effects and political commitments that outlast any single administration.

Yes, inflation erodes debt, but it also destroys credibility — and once you lose that, financing costs explode. The real danger isn’t Trump’s supposed genius, it’s that treating the dollar like a personal put option underestimates how fragile global trust actually is.

Plus the guys super into gold, I feel like he would prefer a strong dollar

If the world continues to become more protectionist, does the USD need to be replaced by a single global reserve? It could just be a multi-polar period with a bunch of regional reserve currencies. Global liquidity backed by a single reserve isn't required if WTO dies, and trade is negotiated bilaterally

Three projections that signal the dollar's demise: 1. The Fed has lost control of the Yield Curve, 2. One term presidents will become the norm, and fail to cut deficit spending 3. Powell will be the last multi-term Fed chair, and monetary policy will begin to oscillate in lock step with fiscal policy.

I don't see #1, at least not yet. The Fed hasn't lost control of the yield curve compared to the amount of control that the Fed normally has over it (which is less than total control).

For me, the second half of #3 is the real death knell. If Congress or the president is setting monetary policy, the dollar is in for a world of hurt.