this is the argument i continue to have with people. first mover isnt always an advantage - i think openai will be sold or pennies on these dollars someday (next 5 years after they run out of funding).

Google has data, TPUs, and a shitload of cash to burn

>first mover isnt always an advantage

but in this case it is, ChatGPT name is really, really strong, it's like "just google it" instead of "just search the web"

Maybe but it's far from profitable. People largely don't want to pay for it either.

Who cares? profitability is not the most important thing at every stage of the product

Altman is a horrible CEO also, which wont help. He table-side manners are horrible.

I'm not sure because google was by far the best search engine for a long time in the early 2000s and there are a lot of models close to what openai has right now.

Name recognition only gets you so far. "Just Google it" happened because Google was better than Hotbot/Altavista/Yahoo! etc by orders of magnitude. Nobody even bothered to launch a competing search engine in the 2000s because of this (until Microsoft w/ Bing in 2009). There is no such parallel with ChatGPT; Google, Bing, even DuckDuckGo has AI search.

First mover advantage matters only if it has long-lasting network effects. American schools are run on Chromebooks and Google Docs/Slides, but these have no penetration in enterprise, as college students have been discovering when they enter their first jobs.

this ^^

play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

lots of jealous nerds in this forum ...

way behind compared to whom ?

I was with you until you compared super cruise to FSD. not even comparable

I have to admit, I love my model S and have been very bullish of TSLA but this news makes me very bearish. There is no way they are going to make robots at scale in the next 5 years and the model s and model X are cool pieces of technology. If they dont start rolling out robotaxi extremely quickly to new locations, I cant imagine the stock going anywhere but down.

> There is no way they are going to make robots at scale in the next 5 years

If you said 1 year okay I would believe you. But have you seen the advances in AI recently...? And the work done in robotics by other companies like Google and Figure? 5 years is definitely doable.

Sorry, Ill say it a different way. I dont think Tesla will be able to sell ME a robot within the next 5 years that does my laundry and cooks me dinner. If they want to sell millions of these things, that is what it's going to need to do.

AI isn't the only bottleneck - even if the software problem was solved today, a robot arm competitive with human arms simply doesn't exist (and the only ones that have a hope of competing cost $16k each) - it turns out all those degrees of freedom makes the arm super fragile, and the human arm is filled to the brim with sensors (e.g. to figure out the weight of the item you're holding, or to tell when the teatowel is slipping or if you're gripping it tight enough).

(Source: construction-physics, if anyone wants to comment with the link)

I know the Optimus marketing wank is all sci-fi humanoids, but I wonder if the products that actually hit the market will be much simpler, not trying to compete with human arms, as you say. Does that seem likely to you?

That is exactly the plan: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-confirms-robotaxi-expansion-...

I think robotaxi will eventually everywhere but austin is rolling out a lot slower than i expected.

But the Model S and X are luxury competitors and if Tesla wants to be Toyota/Honda instead of BMW/Mercedes, perhaps they no longer fit in their plans. The issue is they don’t have any other mainstream models besides the 3 and Y. Perhaps they really need bigger CUVs and SUVs that cost less than the X and a higher end Model 3 (like Corolla/Camry or Civic/Accord) to replace them.

Is the accusation the dad stole the crypto, or the dad AND the son stole the crypto ?

It's not clear.

i wasnt be sarcastic, it seems so easy to prove i cant believe the kid needed to DOX himself. the US Government puts his dad in charge of shitload of crypto and his son starts live streaming himself buying expensive watches - seems like a slam dunk to me

Any sane person knows we shouldn't take any of the protestors seriously (they're all hypocrites, the lack of protests over this is proves it). Both Gaza and this are obviously tragedies but they only care about one

I cant believe Greta as a platform in 2026; people are dumb i guess

Yes, OUR government does fund Iran. Read about the Iran Nuclear deal under Obama, we gave them billions, more than we have given Israel.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-united-states-iran-an...

https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/03/politics/us-sends-plane-iran-...

To add context: the funds were not “given” as one might give humanitarian funding. The funds were Iranian financial assets that were frozen after the Iranian Revolution, accrued interest over the subsequent decades, and were returned as part of a legal settlement. I stake no position on whether this should have happened, just providing more specific color to the situation.

that is true, but it was still a large sum of money given to an authoritarian murderous regime, was it not?

That's an extraordinarily loose definition of "gave"