90% of the stock is owned by Masa who used it for collateral for his 18 billion loan for Stargate. THat is against 33 banks who have a strong incentivise to dump in a margin call situation.
Their revenues are circular for the last 4 years, with 30% growth purely coming from Softbank shuffling their own money.
They are gonna be the canary in the coal mine for when the AI bubble implodes.
My cynical take is that it'll works out just fine for the data centers, but the neighbouring communities won't care for the constant rolling blackouts.
Okay but even in that case the hardware suffers significant under utilisation which massively hits RoI. (I think I read they only achieve 30% utilisation in this scenario)
That article appears to be stuck behind a paywall, so I can't speak to it.
That's good for now, but considering the federal push to prevent states from creating AI regulations, and the overall technological oligopoly we have going on, I wonder if, in the near future, their energy requirements might get prioritized. Again, cynical. Possibly making up scenarios. I'm just concerned when more and more centers pop up in communities with less protections.
Current US debt to gdp is 124%, 38.6 trillion.
Japan too at 230-240%.
Bond markets in both are looking seriously unhealthy (Japan going via a Liz Truss moment at present).
If the AI bubble falls over, the US government is going to have to print 5 trillion to cover the bubble at least. The only option there is inflate away anyone holding cash.
If hte AI succeeds and people are replaced, the US government faces a massive fiscal cliff of a loss of tax receipts. They won't be able to service the debt and again will be forced to inflate away.
To service current debt projects, AI growth needs to return some 3.2-3.5%, it is currently 0.5%.
Bonds, equities, USD, and housing are all risk assets right now.
I am still a little skeptical about utilisation rates. If demand is so extreme, wouldn't we see rental prices for H100/A100 prices go up or maintain? Wouldn't the cost for such a gpu still be high (you can get em 3k used).
On "runpod community cloud" renting a 5090 costs $0.69/hour [1] and it consumes about $0.10/hour electricity, if running at full power and paying $0.20/kWh.
On Amazon, buying a 5090 costs $3000 [2]
That's a payback time of 212 days. And Runpod is one of the cheaper cloud providers; for the GPUs I compared, EC2 was twice the price for an on-demand instance.
That ASUS motherboard is far from the cheapest available. If using it makes the user liable for failure, a large part of the market is unsuitable.
For both the cooler and the motherboard, AMD have too much control to look the other way. The chip can measure its own temperature and the conceit of undermining partners by moving things on chip and controlling more of the ecosystem is that things perform better. They should at least perform.
10% of the stock is floated.
90% of the stock is owned by Masa who used it for collateral for his 18 billion loan for Stargate. THat is against 33 banks who have a strong incentivise to dump in a margin call situation.
Their revenues are circular for the last 4 years, with 30% growth purely coming from Softbank shuffling their own money.
They are gonna be the canary in the coal mine for when the AI bubble implodes.
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