There is better awareness of everything bc of the internet, you are just in the disbelief phase even though markets have already peaked and insiders are heading for the exits.
Why do you think Jeffery Gundlach is wrong when he just said literally everything is overvalued? Everyone knew it was a bubble in 2001 and in 1929, that's part of being a bubble, it doesn't make sense but it just keeps going up ignoring all risks. Is there liquidity for a little more yeah maybe, but when everyone is long and highly leveraged there is only one way for things eventually to go.
I do know who he is, why do you assume I don't, just so you think you can appear smart on the internet? Pretty pathetic. Gundalach has better investing success than you and Fama, you should listen to what he says instead of just assume he's wrong, that's called being intellectually dishonest.
Yeah I guess you fundamentally misunderstand the difference/significance between someone who is seeking objective peer-reviewed truth and someone who tries to seduce investors to put money into their fund for fees on the internet with wild theories and anecdotal gambling success. It's not your fault, you must be a teenager or something.
Why are you so angry buddy, are you way overinvested in tech or something? What are you even trying to argue, that it's impossible to value the market?
Yeah markets are disconnected from fundamentals. Conduct causal inference with any fundamental metric on forward returns and you'll see they have almost zero predictive ability. That supports the efficient market hypothesis, as do many many other observations.
If you could simply "value the market" in some analytical way, then any simple neural network would (universally) approximate it. Instead you see the vast vast majority of machine learning quant funds fail. Here are the specific details as to why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRUlSm4gdQ4
So how was I able to make money on both crashes this year and buy the bottom in 2022, how did Burry know it was a bubble in 2008, how did Greenspan know it in the late 1990s? Humans act irrationally, they get overconfident and overreach then things pull back, boom/busts in specific industries and whole economies have happened since the beginning of history. We humans only have so many ways to value a company and us investors all look at the same ones, we have jobs though that require us to put values to these assets for our clients. This is how human emotions and psychology gets into the market. Fama might be right it's impossible to mathematically predict the exact day and time the bubble will crash, but that doesn't mean the obvious bubble we are seeing isn't a bubble.
That's called "anecodtatal gambling success" and a lot of smart people suffer from this fallacy.
Applying formal causal inference procedures such as propensity score matching, doubly robust estimators, causal forests, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) to test whether standard fundamental variables like P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA, ROE, ROA, gross profitability, or free cash flow yield causally influence forward equity returns consistently shows that these metrics exhibit negligible average treatment effects once confounders and colliders are controlled for.
In other words, across modern causal inference frameworks, the estimated causal impact of common fundamental signals on subsequent returns is statistically indistinguishable from zero, which indicates that most traditional fundamentals have no meaningful predictive or causal power for future price performance. There's no alternative opinion to be had. You're just wrong. You can continue gambling if you like, but you're not doing any kind of predictive analysis.
Why do you think he is right? Lots of people detected previous bubbles. The problem is that the same people also missed or called out bubbles that never happened.
Well yes, we're in a permanent bubble with fractional reserve banking and central planning. Mises institute spends a lot of resources explaining how that works to the public, etc. That's not helpful insight though in terms of taking informed action e.g. as an investor.
You're in the disbelief phase, it sounds like you are overinvested and defensive about your position. The Nasdaq and crypto already peaked, housing is peaking as well, we're in the middle of the crash.
Is this the same crash that happened when tariffs were announced? What about the 2022 crash? What sort of crash are we talking about?
IMO the AI incumbents want to provoke smaller pullbacks on the way up to A) kill competitors who can't handle it and B) prevent a catastrophic crash that would actually hurt them.
That's why we see stuff like Thiel selling his NVDA holdings. He's just going to buy back in later.
Target is already 44% down on the year, Meta/Oracle/Tesla/Palantir and many others are 20% off peak, layoffs are at 2008 levels, look at peak to trough 2001 down, that's how bad it can get. Yeah, he'll buy back later, when Nvidia is beaten into the ground and you've all given up hope it will ever go back up again.
The impetus is that 90% of our country is in recession and the rest are soon to follow. Delinquencies are rising fast and not just in subprime. Layoffs are at levels not seen since 2008. Crypto, tech stocks and many housing markets have already peaked or are already in bear markets. The crash is here and it's inevitably going to get worse.
The overall rates are increasing but contagion takes time to spread from subprime which are getting hit much harder, credit card, car and student loan in particular. They will spike when things really hit the fan, first the asset values have to deflate.
Right now Open"AI", Oracle and everyone else are burning billions of dollars to buy and run these llms, they raise the price of energy around them, they provide negative economic benefit. It's dishonest of you to pretend that isn't the case.
I didn't know AI provides negative economic benefit overall. Is that what you're saying or just the it's negative for the local economies because it drives up power prices? That's an obviously small-scale, short-term and solvable problem.
No, we've used it, you are creating a strawman argument assuming "AI skeptics" are illiterate and/or incapable of understanding. You ironically are the one refusing to accept the possibility that you are wrong.
> No, we've used it, you are creating a strawman argument
There exists a class of "ai-skeptic" who proudly proclaim they have never and will never use AI. Examples are not hard to find, though I see them more on reddit/instagram/bluesky than I do on HN.
If that does not describe you then my comment is not about you.
Maybe you've used it-- but a very large number of the AI skeptic comments I see that actually cite particular experiences, even comments in the pages of HN, amount to things like, "ChatGPT hallucinated when I asked about the local price of product X and if it was in stock anywhere around. How can anyone take LLM and AI seriously?"
Or worse, things like "Real science and real engineering doesn't rely on tools that behave randomly.".
12k a year out of your paycheck for an advanced Clippy "assistant"? Sorry, this is not plausible. Oh and by blue collar work do you mean done by walking talking robots? I bet you think we'll be flying cars to work w/in 5 years too huh. Oh yeah and when is your chatbot going to solve physics and cure cancer again? You ppl have lost your minds.
Actually yeah 12k a year better be really really good, because that can get you a lot of quality human. At 12k per year and $100/hour, that gets you 120 hours of time which means you get ~20 minutes per day, on average. Or if you get down to $33 an hour it's an hour a day.
I don't think it requires robots. Although that's possible too.
I think that HoloLens has a reasonable demonstration of how to assist blue collar work about 10 years ago (AFAIK it flopped). I would bet a dollar that similar technology augmented with LLMs could be useful to blue collar work.
Well clearly Microsoft don't see how given that they canceled the project this year. Do you really think we need some video game HUD in our vision at all times? Come back to the real world it's nice here.
