I think the corrective to this is that many of these incumbents will fail to re-conceive their product stack from a user-centric perspective, and as a result they will be reduce to just a dumb data layer which is easily swappable.
Sure, they could do that, but the cultural change required is an order of magnitude harder than just sticking an agent on top of their source-of-truth and believing that the problem is solved.
Maybe it works for areas where the application is a relatively self-contained island of productivity. Figma is somewhere that a designer spends a lot of their day, so it's going to be less vulnerable, but most pieces of softare fit into broader workflows. So for Figma the disruptor is less likely to be "AI-powered designer" and more "AI-powered web builder" - e.g. Lovable or even Claude Code itself that just generates great designs.
You're completely right, I mistakenly left out the US so I'm going to edit it in. If you include the US, it's five. The first two are of course trivially correct. I'm leaving them unnamed in the hope that those who write all-knowingly about this topic yet can't instantly name them might realize they don't know much about software sovereignty in the first place.
The third one is definitely a notch lower than the others, as I noted. But still IMO noticeably higher than the other 196. The point still stands if you don't count them.
The flip side of this is that if model capabilities are extremely strong such that they are able to saturate the benchmarks, the differentiation and defensibility of a wrapper solution built on top are significantly reduced.
IANAL but e.g. Claude Cowork is already good enough that it's hard to see how the legal tech startups are going to differentiate except around access controls, visual presentation of workflows, etc. And that's in a heavily enterprise/compliance-aware/security-focused context.
Don't get me wrong, that's still a big "except" - big enough for massive companies to be built. Personally the anxiety of being so close to being squashed by the foundation models would make me unhappy as an entrepreneur but looking at the market it seems like many people have a higher risk tolerance.
I keep saying (need to coin a name for this at some point): LLMs, by their general-purpose nature, subsume software products.
Whatever domain-specific capability some software product[0] has, if it's useful to users now, it's more useful if turned into a tool an outside LLM can wield[1]. Users don't care about software products - on the contrary, the product is what stands between the user and what they actually want. If they can afford to delegate using the product to someone else, they do - whether it's to a friend, an external contractor, or an employee hired for that purpose.
This is the value offering LMMs provide to the user: general delegation. If an LLM can operate some software for you, it frees you to focus on problems you need solved. If it can operate multiple software tools, the benefit to you grows superlinearly, as the LLM can use multiple tools to solve problems not addressed individually by any of them. Problems there are no dedicated tools for at all.
This is a big problem for the software industry as it is, because we're relying on the concept of software product as a monetizable unit - some UI layer that defines what can and cannot be done, that we can charge for, and then double-dip with upsells and dark patterns, as UIs are the perfect marketing platforms. General-purpose LLMs sitting on the outside, they break all that by erasing the "product" boundary - and what's worse (for the industry, it's great for me as the user!), as the multi-modal capabilities get better, there's nothing one can do to stop it - even if you purposefully block and obscure any (classically) machine-friendly endpoints, the LLM will just take the hard way, and operate the UI the same way human does.
There's no way I see this won't upend the entire industry in the next couple of years.
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[0] - This includes both products you buy, and products you rent, aka. SaaS.
[1] - As opposed to "inside LLMs", AKA. AI-in-product integrations everyone's doing these days, in a desperate attempt to stay relevant. Outside vs. inside LLM is a difference between your personal assistant and the assistant at some company's reception desk.
Of all the challenges you face as a startup, the legal entity you choose is possibly the least consequential. Just choose a jurisdiction where investors understand how the legals work (Delaware C-corp, UK Ltd is OK too) and there's a finite administrative burden and/or commoditized tooling in place to help you handle it.
Now, that may not work in all jurisdictions for reasons of local taxation etc (and you'll have to work out payroll tax, benefits etc) but that's almost never anything to do with the legal entity type!
> investors understand how the legals work (Delaware C-corp, UK Ltd is OK too)
Man, at least read the title of the submission, even if you're not gonna be bothered reading the contents. This is clearly about EU, incorporating in either of those two places would defeat the entire purpose :)
> the legal entity you choose is possibly the least consequential
I think this is a bit of the goal with EU-INC, so people don't have to think about it as much. Right now, if you're multinational, you really have to be careful what country you use as your base. Hopefully, with something like this, in the future, you can also include a "EU-INC" in there, and advice people to just go with the simplest way. I think that's the dream at least.
And yet I'm not seeing an awful lot of advantage of registering in the EU then if this campaign has to exist - clearly there's a big enough friction to registering / running a company within the EU itself.
> Of all the challenges you face as a startup, the legal entity you choose is possibly the least consequential.
The amount of founders who choose to domicile their company in Estonia because the ticket rates and ease look attractive and who don't understand that this will still need to be administered in their local market as a CFC (controlled foreign corporation) would probably say differently.
> Just choose a jurisdiction where investors understand how the legals work (Delaware C-corp, UK Ltd is OK too) and there's a finite administrative burden and/or commoditized tooling in place to help you handle it.
That's exactly what EU-INC is trying to provide/solve afaict.
This is a EU initiative. Confusingly, EU is often called Europe in spoken/non-official speech. Sort of the same way it is said that Washington does something, when it is the US gov doing something.
You also need portability. As I understand it there's no problem with having a Delaware corp but all your staff and operations being in California, for example. I do not believe this is the case all across the EU! And some localities can have quite onerous formation requirements for no good reason (anything involving notaries, for example - 19th century solution to 19th century problems).
I started a limited company in Spain about 15 years ago. Just the 48h online is huge. It took maybe 15-20 days and visits to the notary, etc. (notaries are usually not available next day, for example). I think Estonia and UK have similar quick ways, but if this is as quick it is definitely an advantage over the status quo. It will affect companies without investors as well, which adds up.
> I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways.
Monetary penalties are different from trust erosion in that they are the test of whether trust can be restored, ie you are acting very unpredictable => I am going to show you I'm paying attention and hit you with a penalty and watch your response. If you continue to show you are unpredictable => I plan an exit so that I don't _have_ to trust you, ie trust erosion.
Ultimately if there's too much unpredictable behavior the pain endured will become higher than the pain of eroding trust... which if trust was truly eroding would be signaled by establishment of monetary systems independent of the US, probably with the International Monetary Fund as a base, backed by at least India, China & Europe.
The difference is emotionally based retaliation vs. reassessing risk. And it's about money, so it's for sure not about emotions. The financial world isn't run on anger and emotions, like the White House.
I have played with this but been underwhelmed. However I do think probably on the right track.
I know the ecosystem not-at-all (sum total knowledge of the CAD ecosystem is that my kids got a Bambu printer for Hanukkah) but it feels to me that current LLMs should be able to generate specs for something like https://partcad.readthedocs.io/en/latest/, which can then be sliced etc.
Curious to know what others think? I come at this from the position of zero interest in developing the fine design skills needed to master but wanting to be able to build and tweak basic functional designs.
> The unification and seamless workflow at that scale is painfully hard to achieve
It does make you wonder, why not just be a lot smaller? It's not like most of these teams actually generate any revenue. It seems like a weird structural decision which maybe made sense when hoovering up available talent was its own defensive moat but now that strategy is no longer plausible should be rethought?
Two reasons. 1 - they print cash through Ads which means there's opportunity or desire to do more things, or even a feeling like you should or can. So new products emerge but also to try diversify the revenue stream. 2 - the continuous hiring and scale means churn, people get bored, they leave teams, they want to do something new, it all bifurcates. It keeps fragmenting and fragmenting until you have this multilayered fractal. It's how systems in nature operate so we shouldn't think corporation's will be any different. The only way to mitigate things like this is putting in places limits, rules and boundaries, but that also limits the upside and if you're a public company you can't do that. You have to grow grow grow and then cut cut cut and continue in that cycle forever or until you die.
One thing I find interesting about discussions of typography in Cyrillic is how poor the overall readability of text is in most fonts compared to Latin because of the relative scarcity of risers and descenders (e.g. pqlt etc)
One of my tutors at university claimed that she was able to read 9th century manuscript Cyrillic faster than modern printed books because the orthography was more varied and easier to scan/speed-read.
I remember seeing some studies that experimentally show this to be true for Hebrew (another de/ascender-poor writing system), but can't find them at the moment.
Thanks for the factual explanation! I found the example cyrillic texts unreadable as a set of horizontal lines (serif) and vertical lines (characters themselves) giving the feeling of a grid, but I dimissed it as "I can't read cyrillic anyways".
Now that you wrote it down, it does actually makes sense.
Sure, they could do that, but the cultural change required is an order of magnitude harder than just sticking an agent on top of their source-of-truth and believing that the problem is solved.
Maybe it works for areas where the application is a relatively self-contained island of productivity. Figma is somewhere that a designer spends a lot of their day, so it's going to be less vulnerable, but most pieces of softare fit into broader workflows. So for Figma the disruptor is less likely to be "AI-powered designer" and more "AI-powered web builder" - e.g. Lovable or even Claude Code itself that just generates great designs.
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