3. Those very actions are what make the prophecy come true.
Peter Thiel has all these paranoid delusions about the future. (Dude, I know you are listening, if you are scraping my Hacker News posts we seriously need to have a conversation about this!) Yet, his actions trying to prevent this future he is terrified of are the very things that will bring it to fruition. Hamlet is correct -- we defy augury.
Sir, please stick to the instructions of the palantir corporate handbook to talk to upper management. The correct way to summon Peter Thiel is to stand in front of a mirror at midnight during a full moon and whisper his name three times with the cloned voice of Alex Karp.
I'm running a server on AWS with TimescaleDB on the disk because I don't need much. I figure I'll move it when the time comes. (edit: Claude Code is managing the AWS EC2 instance using AWS CLI.)
Claude Code this morning was about to create an account with NeonDB and Fly.io (edit: it suggested as the plan to host on these where I would make the new accounts) although it has been very successful managing the AWS EC2 service.
Claude Code likely is correct that I should start to use NeonDB and Fly.io which I have never used before and do not know much about, but I was surprised it was hawking products even though Memory.md has the AWS EC2 instance and instructions well defined.
> Claude Code likely is correct that I should start to use NeonDB and Fly.io which I have never used before and do not know much about
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
In my experience, agents consistently make awful architectural decisions. Both in code and beyond (even in contexts like: what should I cook for a dinner party?). They leak the most obvious "midwit senior engineer" decisions which I would strike down in an instant in an actual meeting, they over-engineer, they are overly-focused on versioning and legacy support (from APIs to DB schemas--even if you're working on a brand new project), and they are absolutely obsessed with levels of indirection on top of levels of indirection. The definition of code bloat.
Unless you're working on the most bottom-of-the-barrel problems (which to be fair, we all are, at least in part: like a dashboard React app, or some boring UI boilerplate, etc.), you still need to write your own code.
I find they are very concerned about ever pulling the trigger on a change or deleting something. They add features and codepaths that weren't asked for, and then resist removing them because that would break backwards compatibility.
In lieu of understanding the whole architecture, they assume that there was intent behind the current choices... which is a good assumption on their training data where a human wrote it, and a terrible assumption when it's code that they themselves just spit out and forgot was their own idea.
// deprecated; use ThingTwo instead
type Thing = ...
// deprecated; use ThingThree instead
type ThingTwo = ...
// deprecated; use...
I do frequent insistent cleaning passes with Claude, otherwise manually. It gets out of hand so fast
This is one reason why it blows me away that people actually ship stuff they've never looked at. You can be certain it's riddled with craziest garbage Claude is holing away for eternity
My results improved significantly with the following rules. I hated those shitty comments with a passion, now I never see them.
# Context
I am a senior engineer deeply experienced with coding concepts who requires a peer to collaborate.
# Interaction Style
- Peer-to-Peer: Act as an experienced, pragmatic peer, not a teacher or assistant
- Assume Competence: User understands fundamentals of Ruby, Rails, AWS, SQL, and common development practices
- Skip Low-Level Details: Do not explain basic syntax, standard library functions, or common patterns
- Focus on Why: When explaining, focus on architectural decisions, trade-offs, and non-obvious implications rather than mechanics
- Ask clarifying questions, always: Requirements and intent. The user expects and appreciates this. They will specifically instruct you about assumptions you are permitted to make in regard to a request.
- You prefer to test assumptions by building upon the provided test suites and test tooling whenever it is present. You strictly avoid the creation of one-off scripts.
- You prefer to modify and extend existing documentation. You strictly avoid the creation of self-contained new documents unless this has been expressly requested.
# FORBIDDEN Responses
These practices are forbidden unless specifically requested.
## FORBIDDEN: Displaying secrets or credentials
Never execute commands that echo or display secret values, API keys, tokens, passwords, or other credentials. Intermediate variables that are never echoed are acceptable.
## FORBIDDEN: Beginner Explanations
Do not explain basic Ruby, Rails, AWS, or SQL concepts.
## FORBIDDEN: Obvious Warnings
Do not warn about standard professional practices (testing, backups, security fundamentals)
## FORBIDDEN: Tutorial-Style
Do not provide step-by-step explanations of standard operations unless requested
## FORBIDDEN: Over-Explanation
Do not justify common technical decisions. Focus your energy on unusual and complex decisions.
## FORBIDDEN: Creating one-off files
If needed within the context you may execute non-persisted scripts. Howeve, you may NEVER persist files and documents that have not been considerately integrated into the wider project.
# Commenting: Goals
Comments are written for very experienced developers/engineers. Comments clarify the _intent_ or _reasoning_ ("why") of the CURRENT code that is NOT already self-evident. Simple, maintainable code does not require comments.
- Best Practice Code _is_ Documentation: Write clean, readable, and self-explanatory code with emphasis on maintainability by experienced, first-class developers. Refactor complex code before resorting to extensive comments.
- Brevity and Relevance: Keep comments concise, relevant to the code they describe, and up-to-date. Review and/or modify ALL relevant comments when making changes to code.
- Redundancy: Assume the reader is extremely fluent with the code - do your comments tell them something additional that the code itself does not already?
# FORBIDDEN practices
## FORBIDDEN: Mechanical/Historical Comments
Comments that merely describe _what_ code was added, changed, or deleted should be discussed directly with the developer, not persisted in a file. Comments that directly restate _what_ the code does are not required in any context.
## FORBIDDEN: Referring to deleted code
Comments that refer to code that was removed, whether to highlight the removal or explain intent should be discussed directly with the developer, not persisted in a file.
## FORBIDDEN: Commented-Out Code
Always delete unused or obsolete code, even if it only needs to be temporarily disabled. Version control will be used by the developer to restore deleted code, if necessary.
From what you said it sounds like the conclusion should be "you still need to design the architecture yourself", not necessarily "you still need to write your own code".
> even though Memory.md has the AWS EC2 instance and instructions well defined
I will second that, despite the endless harping about the usefulness of CC, it's really not good at anything that hasn't been done to death a couple thousand times (in its training set, presumably). It looks great at first blush, but as soon as you start adding business-specific constraints or get into unique problems without prior art, the wheels fall off the thing very quickly and it tries to strongarm you back into common patterns.
Yeah, I actually wanted to write an addendum, so I'll just do it here. I think that going from pseudocode -> code is a pretty neat concept (which is kind of what I mean by "write your own code"), but not sure if it's economically viable if the AI industry weren't so heavily subsidized by VC cash. So we might end back up at writing actual code and then telling the AI agent "do another thing, and make it kinda like this" where you point it to your own code.
I'm doing it right now, and tbh working on greenfield projects purely using AI is extremely token-hungry (constantly nudging the agent, for one) if you want actual code quality and not a bloated piece of garbage[1][2].
> they are overly-focused on versioning and legacy support (from APIs to DB schemas--even if you're working on a brand new project)
I mean, DB schema versioning is one of the things that you can dismiss as "I won't need it" for a long time - until you do need it, at which point it will be a major pain to add.
I second this. Especially with a coding assistant, there's no reason not to start out with proper data model migration. It's not hard, and is one of the many ways to enforce some process accountability, always useful for the LLMs
There is another way to go about this. Statistically immigrants from Latin America have lower crime rates than the average American. It is possible to increase population AND decrease the crime rate by allowing immigrants into the country.
Personally, as someone with capital, having people who also work hard for less salary is beneficial. Most native born Americans are much poorer than I am so I understand their fear of the competition. Nonetheless, for me immigration is a great way to increase the population.
The US isn't that attractive for white collar Latin Americans either. For example, the kind of Mexican who can get a job at Google MTV or ATX would also be able to work at Reddit CDMX for around $80k-$100k TC or McKinsey CDMX for $130k-160k TC.
Even for blue collar immigrants working undocumented in the US, a large portion were formerly lower middle class before the states they lived in either failed (eg. Venezuela) or quasi-failed (eg. El Salvador, Honduras).
I remember seeing a similar trend as a kid - we used to see plenty of college educated Mexicans and Argentinians Engineers working blue collar jobs in California because of both their economic crises. When the worst of their economic crises ended, those that didn't naturalize chose to move back to the old country.
CMDX is where we did a LOT of offshoring pre-COVID. Ditto for folks in Baja to cover timezones.
Definitely a paycut compared to the US but still pretty great for MX. Timezones and cultural overlap were pretty good, and there was a vibe that the folks coming out of Universities in CDMX were genuinely good, compared to iffy paper tigers in the Indian call centers.
The TN visa was also attractive, since we could just bring them north for a rotation or two. The Mexican workers love it since there was a big pay bump, but also the expectation they could continue their job back in MX later; bring em up to the RDU or Austin, put em in a few leadership roles, and then have them run a unit in MX, or help coordinate other LATAM efforts.
I find it a much more conscious choice for high paid immigrants. They can either live closely with their family, with the added bonus they basically live like a 'king' or they can move countries to live relatively wealthy lives in a new country.
Living in the US has many advantages but I feel like a lot of them matter more for offspring. More safety besides wealthy pockets in their home country and a more 'average' life experience compared to the rest of your country are things some people care about. Difference in air quality, traffic congestion and easier access to nature are things that make the US a more attractive choice.
But with changing politics I imagine even many of these advantages are less certain. Lots more things to think about as a (potential) immigrant.
> But with changing politics I imagine even many of these advantages are less certain
That plays some part but in most conversations I've had with Indian and Chinese nationals, the bigger issue for them was that it would take them decades to naturalize in the US. It's not worth spending your entire career and starting a family at the mercy of an employer.
I'm traveling South America now. It is so nice! Brazil and Peru are both today unexpectedly awesome. From the point of view of someone born in those countries, I can understand having ~70% of a US salary but living there being very attractive.
Things are a lot more stable than when I first visited South America 21 years ago. In every city on every block there is new construction in Bogota, Lima, Curitiba.
Moreover, the economic impact of having skilled trained labor returning from years of training how to lay brick, roofing, construction, welding, farm management, cooking in 2 star Michelin restaurants, and other industries is going to continue to fuel the growth. (I could understand building a wall to keep the skilled labor form leaving.)
> Statistically immigrants from Latin America have lower crime rates than the average American. It is possible to increase population AND decrease the crime rate by allowing immigrants into the country.
Except that Latin America also has a fertility rate below population replacement and taking working-aged people from countries that are already in that position is likely to be extremely destabilizing, not to mention unsustainable because it implies those countries would be undergoing long-term depopulation.
We need to figure out why people aren't having more kids everywhere and there's not really anything else for it.
The “average crime rate” argument is disingenuous for an analogous reason to Waymo reporting that their cars are safer than the average driver is disingenuous: it lumps me in with Doris who last passed her vision test a decade ago but now has two cataracts. It also ignores that crimes in immigrant communities are less likely to be reported in the first place.
I lived in South Florida for 12 years working on mega yachts. We were all aware of the criminals raping children then. We were aware of the 14 and 15 year old child prostitutes from Russia trafficked into St Martin. The girls were in the hot tub on the third deck on the yacht in the next slip over and nobody said anything. We were all aware of the hard working immigrants from South America too busy providing for their families and sending money home to be committing crimes.
After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot. The only thing that can stop mainland China taking from taking Taiwan is a US president like Bill Clinton who had the courage to put two United States aircraft carrier strike forces between the mainland and the island to defend democracy which gave us TMSC. I don't see the current snowflake leadership doing that. While I was there, mainland China told the people of Taiwan to shut their mouths and nobody said a word about China after.
The reason mainland China hasn't taken Taiwan is because they don't have to.
I do not like the government of China, however, they are building infrastructure around the world especially in Africa, Asia, and South America. They are not destroying things like Russia does every single day. Their approach to diplomacy now is building.
For the same reason, China isn't commit terrorist attacks on other countries. However, Russia is committing terrorist attacks on other countries so it easy to believe that they are responsible for terrorist attacks.
> After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot
This does not reflect the opinions of any military person I know who has knowledgeably commented on the topic, all of whom have spent quite a bit longer than 6 weeks on Taiwan.
Their defense system is as big a joke as the architecture design in Hualien. Nobody living on the island will openly criticize the mainland for the same reason nobody will point a weapon at anyone from the mainland. They know if the mainland wants the island, they surround the island on day 1, take over the island on day 2, and install their own government on day 3. They know they do not want a record of opposing the mainland in words or violence because of the consquences.
I'm not saying this to be mean. I'm being honest and because the current United States administration is a bunch of snowflakes, it puts the democracy in Taiwan in great danger you need to honest about that too.
The only country I think that is prepared to defend against China is Vietnam.
> if the mainland wants the island, they surround the island on day 1, take over the island on day 2, and install their own government on day 3
Now add typhoon season, the artillery batteries in the mountains, China’s lack of blue-water naval operations (let alone combined arms) and, in terms of allies, the Philippines and Japan.
This will be much more like the Taliban recapturing Kabul. If the artillery batteries are like the infrastructure on the east coast, likely they don't work. Taking the train out there is very dangerous. Not 1 in every 100 people dying because the architecture is shit and the local governments are super corrupt dangerous, but incompetence and people just don't care about maintaining them dangerous. They have ~400 combat aircraft but the mainland won't allow them acquire f35s or patriot missiles and anything that would really be a threat.
The Taiwanese are not going to fight. China told them to be quiet and under threat that if they speak out they and their families will later face retribution, everyone went silent. They are surely not going to take arms against China. My dad had a friend, an scientist from China, in the 80s. She was a critic of the government. She had one child in China. They removed one of her young son's testicles and told her to shut up or they would remove the other. The Taiwanese know how it works.
I spent 3 weeks in the Philippines and 2 months in Japan. Neither can afford a war. The Philippines is too poor and Japan's debt is hovering around 235%–263% of its GDP. Japan doesn't even have official diplomatic relation with Taiwan let alone a defense treaty. Japan is a mess with or without a war.
The only thing that will stop China from attacking Taiwan, is a US president who isn't a whining snowflake. If you are US citizen I would recommend electing a US president with a backbone who isn't a pedophile -- for Taiwan's sake.
> If what you say is true, why ever would the US want to defend them?
Ho Chi Minh went to the Americans and asked for help because the French were raping the Vietnamese and other things. The Americans refused to help them. So the Vietnamese asked the Communists for help. It is strongly believed that the American-Vietnamese war would have been adverted and Vietnam would have had a similar economic trajectory as Japan and South Korea after WWII if the Americans had helped.
Bill Clinton who learned from history did the opposite as Harry Truman and put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island and the mainland during Taiwan's democratic election defending both democracy and Taiwan self determination.
There were a few American presidents who promoted and defended democracy. Unfortunately the whiny snowflake administration in power now isn't one of them.
> Taiwanese are not going to fight. China told them to be quiet and under threat that if they speak out they and their families will later face retribution, everyone went silent
Sorry, this is nonsense. I'm not Taiwanese. But I have a lot of Taiwanese friends, none of them in politics, half of them in America. They all speak out. Forcefully. Exhibit A for this being B.S. is the electoral history of Taiwan, particularly since Xi started his wolf-warrior bullshit in the late 2010s.
> I spent 3 weeks in the Philippines and 2 months in Japan. Neither can afford a war. The Philippines is too poor and Japan's debt is hovering around 235%–263% of its GDP
You have to be joking. Both have prominent militaries they're building up.
> Japan doesn't even have official diplomatic relation with Taiwan let alone a defense treaty
This is your first valid point.
> Japan is a mess with or without a war
This is Zero Hedge nonsense. Japan is a financial mess. They're also an industrial power, scientific powerhouse and potent–and building–military force.
> If you are US citizen I would recommend electing a US president with a backbone who isn't a pedophile -- for Taiwan's sake
Americans don't vote on foreign policy unless there is a draft.
Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens globally. Moreover, there is extreme economic inequality between older and younger generations. This is a huge problem. Russian has lost 1,200,000 young men attempting to conquer Ukraine which is an expense Japan can't afford.
Japan can defend itself but it is not going to aid Taiwan if China creates a blockade around the island like it did 1 month ago takes over.
To be fair to a US president who doesn't deserve any kind of fairness, the US/China dynamic 30 years ago is very different from today's dynamic -- and this has a lot more to do with China's growth than anything the US has done (or not done).
The only thing that can stop China from taking Taiwan is a US president willing to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island the mainland. That is the same today as it was 30 years ago. However, today, unlike in the 90s the mainland can take the island in 3 days without firing a shot.
> this has a lot more to do with China's growth
That is my point. Because of China's growth they don't need to take the island by force or commit terrorist attacks against other countries especially in Europe. Today, countries like the Bahamas, Peru, Afghanistan, and Nigeria are welcoming China and their infrastructure money (not destroying infrastructure like Russia does) with open arms.
China most certainly can destroy Taiwan. What would be very hard is taking it intact. That needs lots of boots on the ground--and how do you get those boots on the ground when any ship that tries to get too close finds itself facing a variety of seeker weapons. China shoot them down when they are fired from a few miles out? Not likely. Even not near land, look at what happened to the Moskova--targeting a sea skimmer is hard.
And it's a sea battle--drones can pick their own targets and thus can't be jammed. What happens when the ship is met by a hundred drones with explosives? Doesn't take much of a processor to compare the image of a ship with the ocean.
One month ago the Chinese navy surrounded the island. [0] That is a siege. Nothing comes in and nothing goes out. The eastern side of the island's infrastructure is complete shit because corrupt local governments. They can't defend it. The Chinese can land and take the mountains and have the high ground easily. The west side can be completely obliterated with rockets from the mainland.
The citizens wouldn't challenged the mainland in 2024, they won't challenge the mainland today, and they won't challenge the mainland in the future.
Likely the reason the mainland hasn't taken the island yet IS because they can take it in 3 days if they wanted.
The sea still makes quite a barrier to invasion. The Russians had to abandon Kherson because there was a river in the way and have had to abandon most of the black sea because Ukraine sinks their boats with missiles and drones.
How am I supposed to consolidate my power if the market doesn't crash so I can purchase residential and commercial real estate at bargain prices? Every third restaurant and business on Las Olas was shuttered in 2009, the buildings sold for next to nothing. Today there's one after another—Ferrari, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, Bentley, Maserati—parked on the street in front of those same buildings, all the while, Steve B. and I enjoy that Luigi's coal fired pizza! /s
Don't know why you're downvoted, that such possibilities are allowed in a completely made up system that can be changed at any time to better society, and not just ~10,000 people across the world, is a gross indictment of the current system.
All neoliberalism has done is made us more alienated, privatized the public commons, destroyed the environment, and hasten income inequality to levels that were worse than the gilded age.
If something doesn't change soon... we'll you can use your imagination to fill in the blanks.
That Thatcher example was brutal. I have an interest in social housing (Vienna, Singapore). The idea of selling it like that is insane to me, like if Taiwan sold TSMC for pennies on the dollar. And made it illegal to start another chipmaking company.
> Ultimately, the new homeowners were also borrowers and paid portions of their yearly income as interest on long-term mortgages
The United States does similar and we also have a nice twist on the concept. We have $38,000,000,000,000 in national debt which increased $2,500,000,000,000 in 2025. Which is like $111,764 per citizen with ~$3,000 in interest payments a year each, all going to a handful of families (and Japan) who hold most the debt as an investment.
The US government borrowed the money, gave the money back to people the government borrowed it from in form of kickback contracts, subsidies to oil companies and farmers who vote for the politicians who increased the debt by $2,500,000,000,000 in 2025, and every citizen is responsible for paying the interest on it.
The solution can be quite simple when you consider money created as debt. The ever increasing private wealth must be proportional to the ever increasing debt, of which governments hold the most of. Its simple imbalance, the ~3000 bucks annual interest doesnt have to be the problem of the many, because their wealth wasnt increasing proportionally.
We live in a world of competition -- even in Soviet communism. As long as people can wrack their brain to get an edge, they will.
Likely the way calculators replaced calculators (people who sat in a room and calculated), AI will replace some jobs. Economics and history have shown that this tends to create more jobs of different sorts and than certain jobs that have been lost to automation.
There is no reason riot and burn Murdoch's printing presses to the ground.
Being able to ask questions to an LLM copilot about patterns across several billion rows, 140GB of time series data, like how the market reacts 15 minutes, 1 day, and 1 week after Federal Reserve press releases, using time_bucket() and other aggregation functions with compressed chunks, and having the copilot generate the queries and run them fast, is going to be game changing. I can ask to write a script to scrape the press releases, to run them through another agent to classify them (hawk, dove) and use that information in the time series analysis.
Even though that exploration has not produced any actionable, tradable results for me, which is why I am sharing it, eventually TimescaleDB will be one of the most important tools in fields like medical research. A researcher will be able to ask in natural language for statistically significant patterns in the data, and LLM agents will query it quickly while taking advantage of all the TimescaleDB optimizations.
I installed Claude Code yesterday after the quality of VSCode Copilot Chat continuously is getting worse every release. I can't tell yet if Claude Code is better or not but VSCode Copilot Chat has become completely unusable. It would start making mistakes which would double the requests to Claude Opus 4.5 which in January is the only model that would work at all. I spent $400 in tokens in January.
I'll know better in a week. Hopefully I can get better results with the $200 a month plan.
Not my experience at all. Copilot launched as a useless code complete, is now basically the same as anything. It's all converging. The features are converging, but the features barely matter anyway when Opus is just doing all the heavy lifting anyway. It just 1-shots half the stuff. Copilot's payment model where you pay by the prompt not by the token is highly abusable, no way this lasts.
I would agree. I've been using VSCode Copilot for the past (nearly) year. And it has gotten significantly better. I also use CC and Antigravity privately - and got access to Cursor (on top of VSCode) at work a month ago
CC is, imo, the best. The rest are largely on pair with each other. The benefit of VSCode and Antigravity is that they have the most generous limits. I ran through Cursor $20 limits in 3 days, where same tier VSCode subscription can last me 2+ weeks
Claude Code’s subscription pricing is pretty ridiculously subsidized compared to their API pricing if you manage to use anywhere close to the quota. Like 10x I think. Crazy value if you were using $400 in tokens.
I just upgraded to the $100 a month 5x plan 5 minutes ago.
Starting in October with Vscode Copilot Chat it was $150, $200, $300, $400 per month with the same usage. I thought they were just charging more per request without warning. The last couple weeks it seemed that vscode copilot was just fucking up making useless calls.
Perhaps, it wasn't a dark malicious pattern but rather incompetence that was driving up the price.
2. The hero takes action to avoid it.
3. Those very actions are what make the prophecy come true.
Peter Thiel has all these paranoid delusions about the future. (Dude, I know you are listening, if you are scraping my Hacker News posts we seriously need to have a conversation about this!) Yet, his actions trying to prevent this future he is terrified of are the very things that will bring it to fruition. Hamlet is correct -- we defy augury.
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