What public company is massively overvalued in your opinion? Nvidia right now is trading at 44 P/E which is higher than the S&P average, sure, but not anything like the dotcom bubble with a median of 120x earnings.
The problem with this hype cycle has always been that the hyperscalers are pouring unbelievable amounts of capital into a technology that hasn't proven it can generate the revenues needed to justify that.
Nvidia might have an ok P/E right now, but the question is if the industry can sustain buying over $50B of GPUs every quarter(or that it even needs to).
This exactly. How sustainable are the current spends in the wake of needing ROI against these spends in the not too distant future? And who will be able to afford an upgrade cycle only 2-3 years from now given none of the capex spent will have hit positive ROI 2-3 years out.
Will everyone just accept negative ROI in the name of hype? Will scalers be able to meaningfully increase service prices without eroding customer interest?
These are all unanswered questions that a simple PE statement can't support.
All of these things are vastly overvalued. Only one with tangible value is SpaceX because that's actually a moat-space. OAI holds no moat, has not done a good enough job to entrap their users, and has poor cost structure.
xAi isn't even a point of discussion.. it's just a scheme to rip off investors.
WeWork.. hard to take anyone seriously that ever invested in this bad boy.
Wework was a valid long bet that office properties would re-appreciate once the pandemic stopped — but now that AI is pulverizing the job market, any hope of that long bet paying off will require one of three things: a free-market boom in workers that require commercial property for success (e.g. physical invention companies like e.g. Saildrone due to not being able to homelab resins for safety reasons), and/or a market-wide rehiring event due to AI’s failure to deliver, and/or regulatory shifts in profit taxation and new business investment that trigger the above-described boom.
I know some commercial property owners in my hometown let their lowest-desirability storefronts sit vacant for twenty or thirty years (!) in order to prevent commercial property rent from falling across their entire portfolio. Turns out you can pay a lot of property taxes with not much revenue, and there hasn’t historically been regulatory pressure to pay an escalating “empty tax” to compel landlord pricing to behave according to supply and demand pricing models. Wework is still a terrible investment for an investor, but if you’re looking to bet long with no call and have the patient of decades, it’s not the worst plan. (There are certainly worse ways to gamble your money on the commercial property market!)
> any hope of that long bet paying off will require one of three things: a free-market boom in workers that require commercial property for success (e.g. physical invention companies like e.g. Saildrone due to not being able to homelab resins for safety reasons)
That doesn't make sense for WeWork, though. Aren't they a rent-a-generic desk company? If you have any kind of specialist requirements (e.g. "processing resins") they'd seem like a bad fit.
SpaceX valuation is also going to be interesting. Talking about CapEx, SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones. And without Starlink the space launch market size is pretty small.
> SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones
The deorbiting part is redundant. Their satellite are just that, a depreciating asset. Their lifetime seem to be 5 to 7 years. The important claim is if the total cost, including the launch, can be recuperate over that lifetime or not.
Is it? It’s less than obvious that the orbital datacenter boom will happen. Space mining could be a big deal but that’s not a foregone conclusion. Maybe someone will want to build a huge radio array on the far side of the moon, but I don’t expect hundreds of billions to be spent launching it — who would pay? Mars is less fashionable than it was a few years ago. Starlink is pretty impressive, but so is boring singlemode fiber, and the latter is increasingly being deployed everywhere.
(Obviously it will “skyrocket” unless someone comes up with a commercially viable launch system that doesn’t involve rocketing into the sky…)
There is Starlink and Amazon’s version, which both need many thousands of launches each (ignoring data centres)
There’s US military stuff like the starsheild, and it seems extremely likely china will follow suit.
Sat internet is changing the world rapidly where fibre can not be run. I saw it first hand in remote Australia, Yukon, Alaska and Africa. Not to mention ships and planes.
These projects are aggressively driving down launch costs, which increases demand for launches, which drives down launch costs which drives up demand.
Yep, SpaceX actually has a track record as an actual leader and innovator in it's niche (that's very CapEx intensive to enter), it's not really a moat but it's a lead that no other entity seems to be closing in on (on the contrary many would-be competitors seems to have almost given up).
As for OpenAI, I'm not sure if Altman is an idiot or fraudster, claims about reaching AGI/ASI with scaling and investing in that fashion was always delusional at best or fraudulent at worst, maybe he just hoped to divert enough money to engineers to make actual breakthroughs or that the hardware would become a moat but competitors have kept pace, and I fully agree that they are mostly now only hanging on with an insanely bad cost structure now.
> on the contrary many would-be competitors seems to have almost given up
maybe the smaller ones; Blue Origin succeeded, and French and Chinese nu-space companies will continue to get funding for decades - national governments are capable of footing the bill of large CapEx projects. SpaceX competition is irreversibly tied to US foreign policy, and only scientific amd commercial launches are price-sensitive
Twitter is already dead as everyone on Hacker news knew. Nobody I know uses X or whatever it's called now, xAI? I'm looking at Musk going bankrupt and as soon as that happens Trump will be Impeached.
> Guess who wants to shove advertisements into paying customers' face and take a % of their revenues for using their models to build products? Not Google.
Is this the result of a feedback loop from musk joining or did they just accelerate the overall decline of the platform with him joining? Some might say it was going this way even before he picked it up, but it was certainly an inflection point when he joined either way.
All modern social media is pretty toxic to society, so I don't participate. Even HN/Reddit is borderline. Nothing is quite as good as the irc and forum culture of the 2000s where everyone was truly anonymous and almost nobody tied any of their worth to what exchanges they had online.
The moderation changes absolutely changed posting behavior. People got banned for even faintly gesturing the wrong direction on many issues and it frightened large accounts into toeing the line.
It's the proliferation of downvoting. It disincentivizes speaking your honest opinion and artificially boosts mass-appeal ragebait.
It's detrimental to having organic conversations.
"But the trolls" they say.
In practice it's widely abused.
Using HN as an example, there are legitimate textbook opinions that will boost your comment to the top, and ones that will quickly sink to the bottom and often be flagged away for disagreement. Ignoring obvious spam which is noise, there is no correlation to "right" or "wrong".
That's one advantage old-school discussion forums and imageboards have. Everyone there and all comments therein are equally shit. No voting with the tribe to reinforce your opinion.
What's worse is social media allowed the mentally ill to congregate and reinforce their own insane opinions with plenty of upvotes, which reinforces their delusions as a form of positive feedback. When we wonder aloud how things have become more radicalized in the last 20 years — that's why. Why blame the users when you built the tools?
I like voting (up and down) but I also agree with your take. Reddit salts the votes, but maybe the solution is to allocate a certain amount of reasonable votes (up or down) total that a user can use weekly. Make it so when you are voting, it's much more meaningful and truely reflect an opinion you either really agree with or really do not agree with.
Ultimately, I think it comes back to people value their online persona way too much and this is something we've intentionally marched towards.
Yeah, you had to have sufficient rep on Slashdot, then you were randomly allocated a certain number of votes (5 or so, IIRC) that you could use to vote. There were fixed categories you could vote an item for, such as "funny", or "off topic". Once your votes were gone, that was it until you were randomly awarded more. The max score anything could get was 5, and a minimum was -1. You could use the scores to filter what you saw. (ie: show full text of >3 insightful, and summaries of 1-2, hide <1)
It worked pretty well. Obvious trolling was still down voted, and insightful stuff was up voted. The ability to just show a blurb of lower-voted stuff was nice as well; you could ignore obvious crap, but expand it if it caught your attention.
This was good insight. I do think this system would work better. I like the min rep aspect too. The things you've listed would go a long way to preserve the filtration effects of a voting system while possibly mitigating abuse and bot proliferation.
AMD's implementation very much doesn't have that issue - it throttles slightly, maybe, but it's still a net benefit. The problem with Intel's implementation is that the throttling was immediate - and took noticeable time to then settle and actually start processing again - from any avx512 instruction, so the "occasional" avx512 instruction (in autovectorized code, or something like the occasional optimized memcpy or similar) was a net negative in performance. This meant that it only benefitted large chunks of avx512-heavy code, so this switching penalty was overcome.
But there's plenty in avx512 the really helps real algorithms outside the 512-wide registers - I think it would be perceived very differently if it was initially the new instructions on the same 256-wide registers - ie avx10 - in the first place, then extended to 512 as the transistor/power budgets allowed. AVX512 was just tying too many things together too early than "incremental extensions".
AVX512 leading to thermal throttling is a common myth that from what I can tell traces its origins to a blog post about clock throttling on a particular set of low-TDP SKUs from the first generation of Xeon CPUs that supported it (Skylake-X), released over a decade ago: https://blog.cloudflare.com/on-the-dangers-of-intels-frequen...
In practice, this has not been an issue for a long time, if ever; clock frequency scaling for AVX modes has been continually improved in subsequent Intel CPU generations (and even more so in AMD Zen 4/5 once AVX512 support was added).
That was true only for the 14-nm Intel Skylake derivatives, which had very bad management of the clock frequency and supply voltage, so they scaled down the clock prophylactically, for fear that they would not be able to prevent overheating fast enough.
All AMD Zen 4 and Zen 5 and all of the Intel CPUs since Ice Lake that support AVX-512, benefit greatly from using it in any application.
Moreover the AMD Zen CPUs have demonstrated clearly that for vector operations the instruction-set architecture really matters a lot. Unlike the Intel CPUs, the AMD CPUs use exactly the same execution units regardless whether they execute AVX2 or AVX-512 instructions. Despite this, their speed increases a lot when executing programs compiled for AVX-512 (in part for eliminating bottlenecks in instruction fetching and decoding, and in part because the AVX-512 instruction set is better designed, not only wider).
Agree. It's only recently with modern architectures in the server space that avx512 has shown some benefit. But avx2 is legit and has been for a long time.
In gamedev it takes 7-10 years before you can require a new tech without getting a major backlash. AMD came out with AVX2 support in 2015. And, the (vocal minority) petitions to get AVX2 requirements removed from major games and VR systems are only now starting to quiet down.
So, in order to make use of users new fancy hardware without abandoning other users old and busted hardware, you have to support multiple back-ends. Same as it ever was.
Actually, a lot easier than it ever was today. Doom 3 famously required Carmack to reimplement the rendering 6 times to get the same results out of 6 different styles of GPUs that were popular at the time.
ARB Basic Fallback (R100) Multi-pass Minimal effects, no specular.
Not really, Intel Celeron/Pentium/Atom (apollo lake) that was made in the last decade does not have AVX. These CPUs were very popular for low-cost, low-tdp quad-core machines such as Intel NUC mini PC.
Edit. Furthermore, i think that none of these (pre-2020) low budget CPUs support AVX2, until Tiger lake released in 2020.
Assuming you are referring to non-books kind of content: I assume that if this happens to anyone, we'd learn about it and all stop seeding AA's content until they explain what happened and how they're making sure it doesn't happen again. The poor person this happened to will have to explain that this wasn't at all what they thought the software was doing.
As I said in other comments - yes, this requires some kind of trust in the AA project. Personally, I tend to have more trust in this kind of projects than in big corporations, of which people are happily running their binaries without blinking. However, I'm not trying to convince people to trust AA - this project is simply meant for those who want support them.
AA has plenty of illegal and gray content. It's not something laypeople should help to seed. You need to go in eyes wide open and protect yourself if you're participating, which I do not feel you are sufficiently emphasizing in this pitch.
To clarify your question, are you asking if "AA actually distributes stolen content" (one could argue no, since it is only available by Torrent) or "the stolen contents of AA" (essentially every published book in existance)?
Honestly, in these HN discussions, I am disappointed that people seem very casual about mass piracy of copyrighted works.
Neither of those. It's generally violating the law to distribute that copyrighted content, but the content itself isn't illegal. They're asking about what's in there where the actual content is the problem.
As far as being casual about mass piracy, I think the preservation outweighs the damage, and on top of that copyright is too restrictive in the first place. If we could massively boost the internet archive and have dozens of similar institutions, and didn't paywall science articles, and brought copyright down to a reasonable duration, then after that I would be much easier to convince that instances of piracy are bad.
You could say that cameras want to be free. A camera left unattended is likely to walk away.
Some rules are about adjusting incentives and disincentives to maximize value for everyone.
There is a lot of room to argue where that balance is. But the "its easy to copy stuff" argument isn't even grappling the kinds of context that result in more creations.
Most copyrighted material doesn't hurt you in any way if you can't have a copy. So someone creating something and not sharing with you should not be something to complain about.
Nor should it be a problem if they are willing to share with you, if you do something for them.
You are also completely unfettered to create anything for yourself that you feel you are missing.
> Why do none of you understand that this is for Anna's archives official torrents only?
Because you are on the site where people who have no understanding of the domain or the problem still feel it necessary to share their opinion on things they don't understand.
It is first time I see name of that project. I don't know anyone who is involved in that project. On Wikipedia I see it "shadow library launched by pseudonymous Anna".
"Anna's archives official torrents only" - doesn't put me at ease and it is far far from SETI@Home that was ran by highly regarded university and it wasn't storing any torrents on people hard drive.
Random people should not "just try it out because it is as easy as SETI@Home" - it should be, people who already know the project and would like to contribute but it was a hassle for them to set it up.
There are some people that gravitate towards making friends at work and spending their non work lives with them and there are those that prefer the opposite.
I am friendly with my coworkers and might occasionally spend time with them outside of work, but, for the most part, all my closest friendships are not from work and not in the same profession (outside of the few I picked up in school).
I align to everything in this post except the below excerpt. I think it's important to be a lot of things and nothing at the same time and to tie fulfilment to internal metrics rather than externalities.
> AI hasn't eliminated programmers or programming, and it never will.
It might not fully eliminate them tomorrow, but this technology is being pitched as at least displacing a lot of them and probably putting downwards pressure on their wages, which is really just as harmful to the profession. AI as it's being pushed is a direct attack on white collar CS jobs. There will always be winners and losers, but this is a field that will change in many ways in the not so distant future because of this technology - and most current CS prospects will probably not be happy with the direction the overall field goes.
Even if you do not personally believe this, you should be concerned all the same because this is the narrative major CEOs are pushing and we know that they can remain crazy longer than we can remain solvent, so to speak.
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