It's simply a case of looking back and deciding this technical revolution is identical to the ones preceding it. Thus jobs destroyed will be replaced with new jobs, it always happens that way.
Of course past performance is no guarantee of future success...
95% of human farmers lost their jobs because of industrial revolution. What happened then? No jobs were created and we still have 95% unemployment, right?
This is assuming the conclusion. The entire question is whether we are the horses or every other example of humans in the past who found other employment that was inconceivable previous to the technological revolution that rendered their old job irrelevant.
imho Sinner and Alcaraz didn't solve the "overpowering aura" so much as the physical wear and tear took the trio down enough pegs to be much more attainable, and Djokovic is still competing impressively well.
How long were they threatening to kill snipping tool despite it being a perfectly serviceable piece of kit so we could switch to some shitty alternative?
They did ultimately kill it though - and then they re-created it as a bloated UWP version that is an insane 449 MEGABYTES in size! The old win32 Snipping Tool used to be only a few kilobytes...
You'll use a ton of AI but it won't wipe the humans out. In the end you'll have a compositional change, likely nothing catastrophic imo. In part because there is a buck to stop and Claude ain't got no hands...
Mostly non-malicious example... My employer asked me to write a UI to solve a problem for a handful of people until a proper (giant ever-delayed) migration was finished. Over a couple of weeks I made it work despite not having dealt with MVVM/XAML/Whatever before and I was pretty pleased with the outcome. But it was a hacked together thing! I'm not a real dev and given that I got a promise it wouldn't get distributed.
So, you know, in the program.cs startup I checked the username vs a hardcoded list of people in the relevant teams, and if it wasn't crashed out with an error and a support email address.
About 18 months after I had moved on, I got an email with a screenshot of that error message. it would appear the Milan (something like that) office had got their hands on a copy but it just wouldn't work for them...
Trivial to undo of course, but I did enjoy the throwback!
Of course past performance is no guarantee of future success...
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